345 FXUS64 KHGX 160505 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1205 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday Night) Issued at 323 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2022 The main story in the immediate term continues to be the approach of a strong surface cold front (our first strong frontal passage of the fall season), which should move through the area between late Sunday and early Monday. One more day of unseasonably warm and humid conditions tomorrow will precede this transition, however, with steady onshore winds providing both WAA and moisture advection. Daytime highs tomorrow will hover around the 90 degree mark, as increasing low-level Gulf moisture will result in dew points in the lower 70s for most locations. Robust moisture availability and steady onshore flow will prove favorable for the development of scattered streamer showers offshore tomorrow morning, which should expand in coverage and push further inland throughout the course of the day as the frontal boundary approaches from the north as its associated surface low over the Great Lakes slides eastward. A northerly wind shift will initially occur late Sunday with the arrival of the prefrontal trough, as a few embedded midlevel disturbances aid in the development of scattered showers and storms ahead of the surface boundary itself. More substantial rainfall coverage comes by the early hours of Monday as the surface boundary initially arrives in the northern zones, pushing offshore around mid afternoon. While we continue to not anticipate substantial rainfall totals, the positioning of the prevailing 300mb jet streak shows the region of maximum divergence just to our west, and as such rainfall totals should generally follow an east to west gradient across our area. Widespread cloud cover, along with postfrontal cold air advection, will mitigate daytime highs on Monday with most locations reaching the 70s to lower 80s. Overnight lows on Monday will dip into the 50s for most locations, with some cloud cover still lingering in the wake of the front. A prolonged period of dry and cool conditions will follow the frontal passage. Cady && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Friday) Issued at 323 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2022 Let me ask y'all a question...when is the best time to wear a striped sweater? Well all the time of course, but especially on Tuesday and Wednesday night as we'll experience the coldest temperatures in Southeast Texas since early April. By Tuesday morning, the 850mb cold front will have pushed offshore with plentiful cold and dry air filtering in behind it. How cold and dry are we talking? NAEFS shows surface and 850mb temperatures will be at or below the 2.5th percentile for Tuesday through Thursday, and PW values at or below the 10th percentile Tuesday through Friday. This translates to well below normal temperatures for most of next week. We'll see the driest air on Wednesday as surface high pressure moves in overhead. Dew points will drop into the low to mid 20s and PW values will drop below 0.4" (10th percentile: ~0.64"). Long story short, expect high temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s on Tuesday and Wednesday along with lows ranging from the upper 30s to upper 40s (50s along the coast) for Tuesday and Wednesday night. Sweater weather will be in full swing...at least for a little while. Thursday will be a transition day as CAA comes to an end and surface high pressure scoots eastward enough to induce onshore flow. Temperatures on Thursday rebound into the upper 70s/low 80s. An upper level ridge builds in over the Southern Plains on Friday, so the warming trend continues going into the weekend. High temperatures will be back in the mid 80s by Friday. We are in the latter half of October now, so this won't turn into a surprise return of summer. Don't worry...triple digit temperatures can't hurt us anymore. However, it's a little early to call it on the 90s just yet. The latest 90+°F day for the city of Houston occurred on October 29th back in 1991, and the past three years we've had 90+°F days occur after October 20th...so they are still in fair play. All that being said, I don't see any indications of 90s on the horizon for us as of right now. I'm holding out hope that 90+°F days are through for the rest of 2022! ☺ Batiste && .AVIATION... (06Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1147 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2022 Light and variable winds are expected to continue tonight. Patchy fog may develop across portions of SE Texas late tonight, bringing MVFR to IFR visibility at KLBX. Occasional MVFR CIGS may develop in areas at or north of KCXO during the early morning hours. All fog/cigs should burn off shortly after sunrise with light to occasionally moderate S/SE winds resuming across the region. Scattered showers and storms may develop along the coast Sunday afternoon with additional storms possible at KCLL and KUTS ahead of a cold front. Activity should wane heading into the evening with additional storms developing into early Monday morning as a cold front enters the region. 03 && .MARINE... Issued at 323 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2022 Onshore flow will continue throughout the remainder of the weekend with brief periods of wind speeds approaching caution criteria beginning tonight. Chances for showers/thunderstorms increases early Sunday morning and maxes out on Sunday night and Monday as a strong cold front pushes in. Expect the cold front to be offshore by early Monday morning. Light to moderate northeasterly flow develops in the wake of the front, but increases to moderate to strong going into Monday night. A Small Craft Advisory will be needed Monday night through at least part of Wednesday with 20 to 25 knot winds and 5 to 8 foot seas. Winds and seas begin to gradually decrease going into Wednesday night. Batiste && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 93 69 91 68 / 0 0 30 60 Houston (IAH) 92 70 90 71 / 0 0 20 40 Galveston (GLS) 88 76 86 74 / 0 0 30 40 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ AVIATION...03