092 FXUS64 KOUN 160504 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 1204 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday) Issued at 204 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2022 Strong to marginally severe storms are expected to develop north of I-40, along a cold front that is slowly moving southward. Convective inhibition during the day will likely suppress any thunderstorm activity until after 6 pm this evening. Main threats will be large hail up to baseballs early in convective development, transitioning into more of a wind threat as storms grow upscale overnight. Moisture advection, aided by southerly surface winds of 10-15 mph, will help bring 60s dewpoints into parts of southern and central Oklahoma later this evening. Steep mid-level lapse rates will help foster moderate CAPE values this afternoon ahead of the slowly-advancing cold front. Increasing low-level winds this evening will help support scattered thunderstorm development as a shortwave trough moves in from the Texas Panhandle. As storms develop, sufficient anvil-level winds will help foster updraft venting, which will help sustain updrafts. Storms are expected to grow upscale and congeal into a line as they move southward. Aforementioned moisture advection will help lead to PWAT values above 1.3 inches, which is above the 90th percentile for this time of year. Flooding could also be an issue with any of the stronger storms, especially across central and south-central Oklahoma. Storms will continue to move southward into Sunday morning, where strong winds, small hail, and flooding will still be possible. Thunderstorms are still expected to linger across western north Texas Sunday afternoon into the evening. High temperatures tomorrow afternoon behind the cold front will be in the upper 60s for most of the area, as cloudy skies will likely stick around through the day. Bunker && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 204 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2022 Some lingering showers and thunderstorms are possible across western north Texas Sunday evening into Monday early morning. Another shot of reinforced cold air will move into the area Monday, as a shortwave trough moves across the southern Rockies near the Texas Panhandle. This reinforced cold air will likely bring in the coolest airmass across the area and some are likely to see the first freeze of the season Tuesday morning. A harder freeze is possible Wednesday morning, with some locations in north central Oklahoma getting down into the upper 20s, and most of the area seeing low to mid 30s. As of right now, dewpoints seem a little too low for frost, but subsequent forecasts will continue to monitor for the chance of frost. A gradual warming trend will occur into the weekend as a mid- level ridge moves in from the west. High temperatures will likely warm back up into the upper 70s by Saturday. Precipitation is not likely through the rest of the period after Monday afternoon. Bunker && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1200 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022 Showers and thunderstorms continue along and behind a cold front that is working its way south of I-40. Expect thunderstorm activity to shift south of central and northern Oklahoma sites in the next few hours, limited to far southern Oklahoma and north Texas by sunrise before weakening. Showers will then persist through the morning and afternoon, especially for southwest Oklahoma and north Texas. Ceilings are expected to remain VFR outside thunderstorm activity. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 69 47 61 38 / 40 0 0 0 Hobart OK 65 50 63 39 / 80 10 10 0 Wichita Falls TX 69 54 64 42 / 90 30 20 0 Gage OK 69 42 65 35 / 20 10 0 0 Ponca City OK 73 41 63 33 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 71 52 66 40 / 90 20 10 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...13 LONG TERM....13 AVIATION...08