090 FXUS62 KCHS 160458 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 1258 AM EDT Sun Oct 16 2022 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will extend across the region through the weekend. A strong cold front will move through the region Monday night, followed by cool high pressure for the balance of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... The forecast appears on track. Tonight: High pressure will persist across the Southeast United States, resulting in dry conditions through the overnight period. Strong radiational cooling is also expected through the night and winds will remain light and/or calm across much of the area under clear skies. Low temps will range in the lower 50s inland to low-mid 60s at the beaches. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Highly amplified pattern remains in place across the CONUS with strong ridging anchored along the west coast and anomalously deep troughing/cold air across the Great Lakes into New England. Broad surface high pressure stretches across the SE CONUS providing our current nice stretch weather. Pattern changes very little through the short-term period with another strong short-wave and reinforcing shot of even colder air diving through the Great Lakes and making inroads into the SE states during the early to middle part of next week. This will drive a cold through our area during the Monday- Monday night timeframe and deliver some fairly chilly air to the region through mid to late week. Details: Surface ridging will be overhead Sunday morning before shifting off the coast Sunday afternoon into Monday. This will bring us one more day of clear/sunny skies to wrap-up the weekend. Larger scale deep layer flow will also be turning into the southwest and will pull a bit warmer air into the region, with daytime temperatures heading back to above normal. Meanwhile, strong short-wave energy/upper low will once again dive into and close off over the the Great Lakes region heading into Monday, driving a deepening surface low over the eastern Great Lakes and potent cold front down into the SE states Monday/Monday night. Interestingly, guidance is not particularly bullish on precip with this system, particularly the GFS. But given decent moisture advection ahead of and along the boundary and some modest destabilization (500-1000 J/Kg MLCAPE Monday afternoon per NAM guidance), feel that at least isolated to scattered pops are warranted Monday afternoon through Monday night. In fact, given strong mid-level westerly flow developing across the region and 0-6 Km bulk shear values in excess of 40 knots, if we can get some convection to develop, some stronger storms cannot be ruled out. SPC Day 3 outlook has a marginal risk across the entire CWA which seems fine. Behind the boundary, cooler and drier air overspread the region starting Tuesday, setting up a quieter/cooler stretch. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... After FROPA, surface high pressure will reestablish across the region for the balance of the week and into next weekend and should bring another stretch of quiet weather. As mentioned above, a large expanse of fairly chilly air will be rotating out of the Great Lakes and down through the SE CONUS from Tuesday through midweek...with H8 0C temps potentially slipping into our forecast area. This translates to a fairly cool stretch of weather with highs a good 5 to 10 degrees F below normal. Cool/cold nights are also on tap, particularly Tuesday night and Wednesday night with inland temps dipping into the middle and upper 30s, presenting some frost headline possibilities. Will maintain patchy to areas of frost wording for inland areas both nights. Cold air will retreating back northward for the latter half of the week into next weekend and temperatures will rebound back up close to seasonal norms. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR conditions are expected at KCHS/KJZI/KSAV terminals through 06Z Monday. Extended Aviation Outlook: Cold front will slip through the region Monday afternoon through Monday night and may produce some shower activity and possibly some brief flight restrictions across the region. After FROPA, high pressure builds across the region for the rest of the week and will bring solid VFR conditions. && .MARINE... Tonight: High pressure will prevail across the region, resulting in a weak pressure gradient across local waters through the overnight period. The setup will favor a light east/southeast wind that turns offshore late, remaining around 5 kt or less. Seas will range between 1-2 ft, highest across offshore Georgia waters. Sunday through Thursday: Light winds are anticipated in the coastal waters on Sunday. But increasing south/southwesterly flow develops Sunday night and persists through Monday night, ahead of a strong cold front. But winds/seas should remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria. After the front moves through, winds turn to the northwest and then north Tuesday through Thursday. Some gusts touching Small Craft Advisory are possible Tuesday night through Wednesday, although seas are expected to remain below 6 feet. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...NED SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...NED MARINE...DPB