393 
FXUS63 KEAX 160447
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1147 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2022

.Discussion...
Issued at 333 PM CDT SAT OCT 15 2022

Key Points:

* Hard freeze expected Monday night and Tuesday night bringing an 
  end to the growing season. 

* Dry conditions expected for the next seven days. 

Detailed discussion... 

Fairly consistent pattern is expected through the forecast period 
with upper level trough over the Great Lakes and large ridge across 
the western US.

Currently, dry conditions continue with east/west cold front across 
Oklahoma into Arkansas keeping any semblance of moisture well to the 
south. Another cold front associated with trough over the Great 
Lakes region is expected to result in a wind shift from the 
northwest overnight. Little change in airmass characteristics behind 
this front will yield continuation of dry pleasant fall conditions 
on Sunday though slightly breezier than today. Strong surface 
heating with unidirectional wind profile should allow for good 
mixing conditions on Sunday. Expect fair weather cumulus to develop 
in the afternoon hours. Another cold front is expected Sunday 
evening, but strong cold air advection behind this front will result 
in much cooler conditions early next week.  

850 hpa temperatures fall to near -10 C by Tuesday morning, when 
freeze warning will likely be need. Cooler air remains across the 
area on Tuesday, with temperatures struggling to recover 
significantly throughout the day. Current forecast highs are in the 
mid 40s, nearly 20 degrees below normal but still 5-10 degrees above 
record low max territory. Temperatures warm a bit more on Wednesday, 
but greatest improvement is on Thursday as upper low loosens its 
grip on Great Lakes region lifting northeast allowing the western 
ridge to build east.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1146 PM CDT SAT OCT 15 2022

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast. Light winds
overnight will become northwesterly and increase late in the
morning. Winds will diminish late in the afternoon and trend more
to the north. Only a few to scattered high clouds move through
overnight. Tomorrow, there may be enough moisture with diurnal
heating to get some scattered CU to develop. Those will dissipate
with loss of daytime heating late in the afternoon with clear
skies expected tomorrow evening. 

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...BT
Aviation...CDB