406 FXUS64 KMEG 160442 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1142 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2022 ...New AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Friday) Issued at 309 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2022 GOES-16 Satellite trends depict an upper level trough over the Eastern United States with an upper level low located near Baja California. Meanwhile, surface analysis places a quasi-stationary boundary from the Mid-Atlantic states back through Tennessee Arkansas and into the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle. Regional WSR-88D radar trends show some residual showers and thunderstorms over portions North Mississippi which brought almost an inch of rain in a few hours to the forecast office late this morning into early afternoon. Otherwise, a few showers are located over Central Arkansas as of mid-afternoon. As of 3 PM CDT, temperatures across the Mid-South range from the 60s to approaching 70 degrees due to earlier convection, 70s north of I-40, and mid 70s to mid 80s over the remainder of North Mississippi. Strong to severe thunderstorm potential this evening and frost/freeze potential for Tuesday through Thursday morning's remain the predominant concerns in this afternoon's forecast issuance. GOES-16 satellite trends over the past couple of hours have shown a line of cumulus beginning to develop along the nearly stationary boundary over Central Arkansas. Short term models including Convective Allowing Model solutions (CAMs) indicate the potential for redevelopment along this surface boundary and gradually expanding east into portions of the Mid-South this evening. Steep 700-500 mb layer mid-level lapse rates, a corridor of MLCAPE values between 1000-1500 J/kg, 0-6 km Bulk Shear values between 30-40 kts suggest main threats will be an elevated threat of large hail and perhaps damaging winds if they can reach the surface. The greatest potential for severe thunderstorms into this evening will be predominantly across portions of East Arkansas along and south of I-40. Short term models indicate the potential for showers and thunderstorms will persist into the day Sunday as the quasi- stationary boundary slowly moves East-Southeast through the forecast area and gradually taper off into Sunday evening. Much colder and drier air will filter into the Mid-South for next week with well below normal highs in the 50s expected for Tuesday through Thursday. The potential for widespread frost and a hard freeze is increasing for much of the area as lows will fall into the upper 20s to lower 30s with Tuesday night being the coldest night. Consequently, frost/freeze headlines may need to be considered in subsequent forecasts. CJC && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1137 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2022 Mainly VFR conds expected through the period. Scattered SHRAs and embedded TSRAs will continue overnight and through tomorrow morning. Isolated MVFR/IFR VSBY restrictions are possible due to heavy rainfall associated with TSRA or SHRAs, but coverage is too low to put in TAF at this time. Winds will initially be south or variable at all sites and shift to the west and northwest as a cold front pushes through all sites by tomorrow afternoon. AC3 && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC AVIATION...AC3