832 FXUS65 KCYS 160442 AFDCYS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cheyenne WY 1042 PM MDT Sat Oct 15 2022 .SHORT TERM...(Late this afternoon through Monday night) Issued at 230 PM MDT Sat Oct 15 2022 The CWA remained wedged between a deep expansive upper trough over the eastern CONUS and high amplitude upper ridge to the west. Cyclonic north-northwest flow aloft prevailed, with a few embedded shortwaves rotating on the backside of the trough. One wave was moving through northern and eastern WY, producing widely scattered showers. Some of these showers will affect areas from Douglas to Wheatland to Alliance northward through late this afternoon. Otherwise, mostly cloudy skies prevailed with temperatures in the mid 50s to mid 60s. The cool dry northerly flow aloft will continue through Sunday night. Expect mostly clear skies tonight through Sunday night. Most frost coverage overnight will be confined along and west of the Laramie Range. The 700mb temperatures Sunday will range from -2C to 2C, yielding afternoon highs in the mid 50s to around 60F. Northwest winds will be breezy at times over the high plains Sunday afternoon. More widespread freezing temperatures are forecast east of the Laramie Range Sunday night with minima from 26F to 32F. Most of these zones have already experienced freezing temperatures. Frost coverage will be more widespread along and east of Interstate 25. A warming trend commences Monday as the upper ridge to the west shifts east toward the CWA. 700mb temperatures will moderate to 2C to 6C in afternoon, yielding highs in the low to mid 60s. Subfreezing temperatures are forecast once again Monday night east of Interstate 25. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 230 PM MDT Sat Oct 15 2022 Quiet weather expected for the work week as a somewhat anomalous 500 mb high pressure center sits over eastern Idaho/western Wyoming through mid-week. This will result in dry conditions with above average high temperatures through at least Friday. Low to mid 60s are expected for areas west of the Laramie Range. Areas to the east will see temperatures in the mid 60s to low 70s, which is about 5 to 10 degrees above average. Next precipitation chance looks to be Saturday night as both the GFS and ECMWF are in pretty good agreement of a stark cold front dropping down from the northwest during that time. Lower elevations will likely miss out on the better precipitation as both models peg the mountains with pretty good QPF. If these solutions hold true throughout the week, the Snowy and Sierra Madre Ranges could see a few inches of accumulating snow. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night) Issued at 1038 PM MDT Sat Oct 15 2022 Confidence is growing that KLAR will see IFR/LIFR conditions around 12Z that will continue through mid morning. HRRR has been consistent with this developing and has introduced low ceilings in KCDR in the northern Nebraska Panhandle. LAMP is coming on board with KLAR...so do feel confident enough to forecast low ceilings at KLAR. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 230 PM MDT Sat Oct 15 2022 A cold front will continue to sag south into northern Colorado late this afternoon. A trailing weak upper level disturbance will produce a few showers this afternoon over east central Wyoming and northern Nebraska Panhandle. Near to slightly below average temperatures will prevail this weekend, followed by slowly warming temperatures next week. Minimum humidities will be above 30 percent this weekend, decreasing to the mid teens percent Wednesday through Friday when elevated to near critical fire conditions develop as winds increase. The next chance for measurable precipitation will not be until late next weekend. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MAJ LONG TERM...LK AVIATION...GCC FIRE WEATHER...MAJ