215 
FXUS65 KBOI 160306
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
906 PM MDT Sat Oct 15 2022

.DISCUSSION...A clear, dry and cool night ahead. Temperatures 
were 10-15 degrees above normal today and will be again on Sunday 
as the upper ridge axis moves in from the coast. Easterly winds 
will continue overnight into Sunday. Current forecast is on track.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR with areas of haze. Smoke layers may cause reduced 
visibility tonight, with coverage decreasing to only the Long
Valley area on Sunday. Surface winds: Variable 10 kt or less, 
except pockets of gusty wind across extreme southwestern Idaho 
tonight. Winds becoming east-southeast 8 to 12 kt after 18z Sunday
with gusts of 15 to 25 kt, especially south of the Snake Plain. 
Winds aloft at 10k feet MSL: Northeast 10 to 20 kt, becoming 
southeast by 18z Sunday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Monday night...An upper ridge will
dominate through the period and provide continued dry weather and
above-normal temperatures. Gusty east-southeast winds will persist
through Sunday, mainly across far southeast Oregon/southwest
Idaho. The gusty winds will diminish Sunday night and remain
light/variable through Monday night. Patchy smoke will continue near
wildfires.

LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday...Confidence is increasing 
that the unseasonably warm dry weather may end next weekend. 
Models are in better agreement that the high pressure ridge 
centered over the northwest coast today will migrate east over the
Intermountain Region by Tuesday then retreat southward Thursday 
and Friday. This will allow westerly flow aloft to push inland 
over the Canadian border states, bringing cooler air and better 
precipitation chances. A Pacific weather system is timed to cross 
our area on Saturday, with precipitation starting as early as 
Friday night. Highs will be around 10 degrees above normal through
Friday, then drop closer to normal on Saturday. Lows will be 
around 5 degrees above normal through Saturday. 

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....KB
PREV SHORT TERM...BW
PREV LONG TERM....JT