452 FXUS64 KHUN 160242 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 942 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2022 ...New NEAR TERM... .NEAR TERM... (Rest of tonight) Issued at 942 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2022 The local forecast area will remain under the influence of broad scale cyclonic flow aloft overnight, to the south of an upper low over eastern Ontario. Embedded within this flow, a subtle mid- level wave will progress from western OK into southern AR by 12Z, contributing to elevated warm advection and subsequent development of severe thunderstorms exhibiting supercellular storm structures to our west this evening. Latest model guidance suggests that this regime will spread eastward into our region, with showers and perhaps an elevated thunderstorm possible, primarily across northwest AL/southern TN between 6-12Z. Although deep-layer shear will weaken with time, it should remain sufficient to support at least weak updraft organization, but with MUCAPE expected to only be in the 250-500 J/kg range, a few lightning strikes will be the primary impact. Otherwise, lows will occur later this evening when skies should temporarily be clear, with localized fog expected in areas that saw rain earlier today. Temps will be a bit warmer compared to previous nights, with lows ranging from the mid 50s (SE) to u50s-l60s (NW). && .SHORT TERM... (Sunday through Tuesday night) Issued at 302 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2022 Chances for showers and storms will increase Sunday afternoon as a cold front pushes south and east into northern TN and AR. Increased forcing will drive increasing coverage of showers and a few thunderstorms through the afternoon hours, but the best moisture convergence still looks to be be west of us. With the cold front lagging behind, will remain in the warm sectored airmass through the day on Sunday, with highs near 80 degrees and westerly flow at the sfc. For now, models are in fairly good agreement that the sfc front will push into NW AL between 06-12z on Monday, and we will dry and clear fairly quickly after that. A strong push of dry, polar air will surge into the area by Monday night, with daytime highs in the 60s and overnight lows falling to the upper 20s and lower 30s. A hard freeze might be realized across southern middle TN Monday night, and will monitor trends as a Freeze Watch might be needed. Highs on Tuesday will be limited to the 50s, making for the coldest day we have had since earlier this spring. Went below blended guidance with low temperatures given recent biases and trends. Freezing conditions are expected area wide by Tuesday night as high pressure anchors this cold airmass over the lower MS River Valley. A Freeze Warning will be likely during this time period. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 302 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2022 The cold and dry period will continue into Wednesday, as high temps remain in the 50s and similar lows are expected Wednesday night. Continued to go below blended guidance for lows through Thursday night, but temperatures will begin to rise on Thursday as the sfc high begins to lift to the northeast. Overnight lows will stay above freezing Thursday night, and temperatures will rise near 70 degrees on Friday. upper ridging will build over the eastern CONUS heading into the weekend, and warmer temps with a gradual increase in moisture is expected. Will maintain a dry forecast through the long term period for now. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 716 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2022 Light rain that impacted portions of NW AL earlier this aftn has largely dissipated, with VFR conditions featuring sct-bkn high clouds and light SW winds expected to persist this evening. There is some concern that an additional round of light rain could materialize across NW AL and southern TN during the early morning hours, but due to a lingering dry boundary layer, we do not anticipate significant fluctuations in either cig or vsby. Coverage of SHRA and perhaps a few embedded TSRA will begin to increase late in the TAF period, as a cold front approaches the region from the NW. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...70/DD SHORT TERM...25 LONG TERM...25 AVIATION...70/DD