453 
FXUS62 KKEY 160234
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1034 PM EDT Sat Oct 15 2022

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 950 PM EDT Sat Oct 15 2022

Weather has quieted down quite a bit from earlier this afternoon
and evening. We had multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms
move across the Florida Keys, especially the Lower Keys. First
round was a cloud line that developed earlier in the day. The
second round came when outflow boundaries from convection that
developed over the southwest mainland, raced west southwest over
the island chain. This outflow boundary ignited additional showers
and thunderstorms that gave quite the soaking. Radar estimates 
show that the heaviest rainfall occurred just north of the US 1
corridor between Big Pine and Cudjoe Keys. In fact a personal
weather station on Big Torch Key registered 2.91 inches which
lines up with what we were seeing based on radar estimates. Other
locations picked up between 1 and 2 inches across Ramrod,
Summerland, and Cudjoe Keys, while Key West Int'l Airport picked 
up 0.86 inches.

Additional threat for showers and possibly an isolated 
thunderstorm or two will continue through the overnight. This is
because moisture will continue to remain plentiful ahead of a
weakening frontal boundary currently trudging south across
southern Florida. The front itself will decay and not pass through
the Florida Keys. However, a surface high pressure is quickly
moving in behind this feature and will maintain our northeast
winds while gradually strengthening them. As such, made no changes
to the going forecast at this time. 

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 950 PM EDT Sat Oct 15 2022

Light to moderate northeast to east breezes will prevail through
the overnight. Additional showers and thunderstorms will remain
possible as a weakening front continues to slide southward across
the Sunshine State overnight. Behind this decaying frontal feature
is a surface high pressure that will slide southeast and settle in
across the southeastern U.S. and gradually build, freshening
breezes slightly on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 950 PM EDT Sat Oct 15 2022

VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH through the 
overnight hours. VCSH was kept for the terminals until 16/03Z due to 
boundaries producing showers near the island chain. The activity 
should diminish by 16/04Z, but modest moisture in place and a 
sinking frontal boundary moving into the area late tonight may 
induce a few showers during the overnight hours and Sunday morning. 
Surface winds will be from the northeast at 5 to 10 knots. 

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...LIW
Aviation/Nowcasts....TW
Data Acquisition.....DR

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