772 FXUS62 KILM 160200 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1000 PM EDT Sat Oct 15 2022 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will continue the dry and tranquil weather for the remainder of this weekend. A cold front, accompanied with widely scattered showers, will move through Monday night. Cold high pressure is then expected Tuesday into the late week period with the possibility of patchy frost well inland during the mid-week mornings. && .UPDATE... Very little tweaking needed. Patchy thin cirrus to pass overhead, otherwise expect a clear overnight into daylight Sun. Have kept fog out of the fcst. Winds in the lower levels, between 925mb to just off the sfc, to remain active from the SW around 15+ kt. This may translate to winds staying active at the sfc, ie. 1 to 4 kt, especially north of the highway 74-76 corridor that runs across Northeast SC into Southeast NC. If patchy fog were to occur, southern Georgetown and Williamsburg counties respectively where a sfc based inversion may occur resulting in borderline rad conditions. Very minor tweaks, if any, to mins and hrly temps. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Surface high pressure will remain in control of conditions through the near term period. There is some concern for a little fog formation tonight but it should be isolated at best and transitory. Lows tonight should be in the lower to middle 50s with highs Sunday increasing to the lower and perhaps even middle 80s via a warming southwest flow ahead of an approaching cold front. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... A rather potent cold front will be approaching southeast NC/northeast SC this period. Not expecting significant rainfall through the period but there could be enough moisture and shortwave energy for a few showers, possibly even a few rumbles of thunder. Still can't completely rule out a stronger storm or two developing Monday afternoon given the strong deep layer shear, especially if instability is stronger than currently anticipated. Temperatures should be above normal through the period. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... The cold front should push offshore Monday night with a few showers/storms possible, especially closer to the coast. Looks like a low, but non-zero, risk for a stronger storm until the front passes. Much colder air is then slated to move into the region as the upper trough amplifies and persists into late week. After Monday night when lows will likely be near normal, temps should stay below normal the rest of the period. The main concern will be frost across inland areas Tuesday night but more likely Wednesday night when the high is closer. Temps should be back near normal Saturday. && .AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR conditions to dominate...except for the possibility of MVFR fog at the coastal terminals and FLO if a sfc based inversion is able to set up overnight. Winds at the lower levels, especially away from the elongated center of high pressure over SC, may be strong enough to curtail fog development especially across LBT which may actually keep several kts of SW-W winds going at the sfc at times. Only looking at mainly thin cirrus overnight thru daylight Sun. Flow in general, SSW less than 5 kt becoming WSW-W 2 to 4 kt by and during Sun daylight morning. WSW becoming SW 5 to 10 kt during Sun aftn/evening. Extended Outlook...High confidence in mainly VFR but could see some restrictions late Monday into early Tuesday as a cold front passes through with some low clouds/showers/possible thunderstorms. Breezy southwest winds also likely Monday. Cold high pressure settles in during midweek period, with active N to NW flow. && .MARINE... Through Tonight: Winds will be essentially light and variable tonight which is typical of high pressure systems transitioning offshore. A better defined south to southwest flow will develop Sunday on the order of 10-15 knots as the high moves offshore and a distant cold front moves closer. Significant seas will remain on the lower side of 2-3 feet. Sunday night through Thursday: Increasing southwest winds are expected into Monday night ahead of an approaching cold front which should push through late Monday night into early Tuesday. Gusts could be close to Small Craft Advisory levels given the cold advection over the still warm waters. Seas will build a bit but will be limited most areas due to the offshore fetch and should stay below 6 feet throughout. Conditions will then improve starting Wednesday. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DCH UPDATE...DCH NEAR TERM...SHK SHORT TERM...RJB LONG TERM...RJB AVIATION...DCH MARINE...RJB