859 FXUS61 KAKQ 160132 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 932 PM EDT Sat Oct 15 2022 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure remains over the area through this evening. A weak cold front remains nearly stationary over the area Sunday with a strong cold front pushing through late Monday with showers and storms possible ahead of the front from late Sunday afternoon through Monday evening. Behind the cold front, much cooler, drier air moves in, including the potential for a widespread frost/freeze Tues and Wed nights. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... As of 930 PM EDT Saturday... High pressure remains centered south of the local area, meanwhile a weak cold front is approaching from the west and will likely become stationary over the region tonight. High and mid level clouds move in from the west tonight which will keep lows milder in the lower to mid 50s for most (upper 40s in the far NW Piedmont). && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 315 PM EDT Saturday... A weak cold front approaches from the W early Sun morning before becoming nearly stationary over the area Sun into early Mon. A series of shortwaves push through Sun and Sun night allowing for showers (and perhaps a few isolated storms) to form along the stalled front. The best chance for showers will be Sun evening through Sun night. A strong upper level low moves into the Great Lakes Mon, pushing a strong cold front through the area late Mon afternoon through Mon night. Ahead of the cold front, showers are expected to form with perhaps just enough instability and speed shear aloft for isolated, low-topped thunderstorms. Showers and storms move offshore Mon evening/early Mon night with much cooler, drier weather moving in Mon night. Total QPF Sun and Mon of 0.1-0.3" for the N and S thirds of the FA and 0.3-0.75" for the central third along the US-460 corridor. Although lows Mon night may drop into the mid 30s in the far NW Piedmont, the dry air should allow the temp/dew point spread to be 10+ degrees, which combined the cloud cover, precludes frost mention at this time. Much cooler Tues with highs in the mid to upper 50s for most (around 60F SE). Highs in the mid 70s N to upper 70s to near 80F S Sun and upper 60s NW to upper 70s SE Mon. Lows in the mid 50s NW to upper 50s SE Sun night and mid 30s NW to upper 40s SE Mon night. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 315 PM EDT Saturday... A large, closed upper level low spins over SE Canada Tues and Wed with high pressure diving into the central and southern U.S, eventually making it to the SE Thurs and Fri. This will result in an anomalously cold airmass over the region Tues night-Thurs with temps well below normal. A widespread early season frost/freeze appears likely Tues and Wed nights (Wed and Thurs mornings) and could be damaging to any outdoor vegetation/crops. Lows in the lower 30s inland, mid 30s in urban areas such as Richmond, and upper 30s to lower 40s near the coast are expected. It is possible that isolated upper 20s temps occur in rural areas during this time with the best chance (coldest night) Wed night/early Thurs morning. Highs only in the mid to upper 50s (near 60F SE) Wed and upper 50s to lower 60s Thurs. Warmer Fri and Sat with highs in the mid to upper 60s. Otherwise, dry weather prevails with lows in the mid 30s W to lower to mid 40s E Thurs night, upper 30s W to mid 40s E Fri night, and lower 40s W to lower 50s E Sat night. && .AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 750 PM EDT Saturday... VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the 00z TAF period. Cirrus/stratus move in from W to E tonight with SCT/BKN cloud cover expected to continue into Sunday afternoon. Light and variable winds overnight through Sunday afternoon with a general SW component Sunday. Outlook: Showers are likely Sunday night into Monday evening ahead of the next frontal passage. A few thunderstorms will also be possible across the S. A period of sub- VFR conditions will be possible Sunday night and Monday with the showers. && .MARINE... As of 400 PM EDT Saturday... Late this aftn, Sfc high pressure was centered just off the coastal Carolinas. Winds were SSW 5-15 kt with a few gusts to around 20 kt across the waters. Waves were 1-2 ft and seas were 3-4 ft. A weakening cold front enters the region tonight, then washes out over the local waters leaving WSW or S winds around 10 kt or less into Mon morning. Ahead of a stronger cold front approaching from the W Mon, SW winds increase to 10-20 kt. That cold front crosses the Mid Atlc region Mon night, to be followed low level CAA and gusty NW winds into Tue aftn. A secondary cold front crosses the local waters Tue night/Wed morning. At minimum, a SCA will likely be needed for portions of the waters for late Mon night into Wed. Waves mainly 1-2 ft in the bay/seas 2-4 ft this weekend/Mon. A bit of an increase in waves/seas possible Mon night into Wed due to NW winds and CAA. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RMM NEAR TERM...AJB/RMM SHORT TERM...RMM LONG TERM...RMM AVIATION...AJB/RMM MARINE...ALB/TMG