594 FXUS61 KRNK 160111 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 911 PM EDT Sat Oct 15 2022 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front will slowly advance through our area overnight into Sunday morning before a second cold front sweeps across the Mid Atlantic Region Sunday night and early Monday bringing a good chance for showers to the region beginning Sunday afternoon. Much colder air, gusty winds, as well as the chance for snow showers in southeast West Virginia arrives Tuesday and Tuesday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 911 PM EDT Saturday... Made some minor adjustments to pops and weather tonight. Increased cloud cover overnight into Sunday morning. Also allowed for a light chance for showers in the southwest mountains leaning towards a blend of the NAM,HiresW-ARW and NBM. Modified temperatures for tonight a few degrees especially in the west. Have a good night! Previous: As of 625 PM EDT Saturday... A cold front continues to advance southeast across the region tonight. Regional radars indicated a few showers or sprinkles in the western mountains ahead of the front. Increased clouds in the west and allowed for isolated showers in the southwestern mountains. Modified temperatures utilizing the latest surface obs, their trends and blended in the NBM. More changes later tonight. Previous Discussion: As of 200 PM EDT Saturday... Confidence continues to increase for showers arriving Sunday afternoon. At 15Z (11 AM EDT) a slow moving cold front was noted across western West Virginia and Eastern Kentucky. Hi-res models are in good agreement that this feature only slowly advances southeast tonight, as the broad upper level trof across the eastern U.S. flattens tonight. An upper level jet max and weak shortwave noted on water vapor satellite imagery across the northern MS Valley approaches our area tonight helping to increase high and mid level cloudiness. This, combined with sfc dew points increasing in advance of the approaching cold front will keep low temperatures warmer compared to recent mornings. Expect a quick fall in temps after sundown, before readings level or only gradually fall later tonight as clouds thicken. Lows tonight in a few locations (DAN, TNB, MTV, BCB)) are a couple of degrees cooler than the NBM forecast based on recent trends and with the later arrival of high/mid clouds. On Sunday, there is good agreement in the models/ensembles that the upper level trof sharpens and deepens as energy spills south into the western Great Lakes by Sunday afternoon. This, combined with the upper level jet max from the northern MS Valley, will help generate strong shear over the region with SREF forecasting 0-6 km bulk shear values of 50-60 knots. While the moisture return will be meager, GEFS output shows a small chance for CAPES to exceed 250 j/kg from the NC Piedmont into the VA southside. As a result, kept a small chance of thunder in the forecast for this area. Otherwise, this strong lift will help generate scattered to numerous showers across the region by Sunday afternoon. Despite an abundance of clouds, downsloping flow and 850mb temps 1-2 standard deviations above average should be enough to allow temps to again exceed 70 east of the Blue Ridge. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 150 PM EDT Saturday... Rain a good bet Sunday night, turning colder by Tuesday... Models are in good agreement in pushing a second front across Sunday night with ample lift to support numerous showers and even a few rumbles of thunder for the region. The front slows across the NC/VA border Monday so a few showers could linger in the piedmont early, before upper trough digs and pushes the front further east. Colder air will not really reach us til later Monday night-Tuesday. Winds Monday could mix up to 5-7kft which with tightening gradient should bring gusts to 20-30 mph over the mountains/foothills, but overall strength of winds should be below advisory levels. Winds stay mixed well into Tuesday-Tuesday evening, the weakens a little Tuesday night. Upper low pushes into the Great Lakes Tuesday and strong shortwave will allow for upslope moisture and lift to produce a few snow showers across the central Appalachians during this time, but little/no accumulation, though a test of winter. Late Tuesday night not sure if winds die off enough to cause any frost issues but patchy frost in the rural areas of the piedmont cannot be ruled out. Highs Monday will start to trend cooler with mid 50s to around 60 in the west, to lower 70s east, then the bottom drops out Tuesday with highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s west, to lower to mid 50s east, 15 to 20 degrees below normal. Forecast confidence is high on measurable rainfall for most Sunday night, and above average for colder temperatures Tuesday, but average on wind gusts Mon-Tue and frost in the east Tue night. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 1142 AM EDT Saturday... Below normal temperatures through the period but moderating... Longwave trough over the eastern U.S. to start the period with well below normal temperatures Wednesday with lingering northwest flow upslope clouds Wednesday morning and a flurry possible northwest of Lewisburg WV. Heights start to build but still remain in a trough into Friday. Models start to diverge slightly Fri-Sat but ensembles and the ECMWF and GFS agree on a closed low forming across the southeast coast into Florida Friday night into Saturday. For our region, should stay dry though potential for clouds increasing Saturday if we get more onshore flow withe high off the northeast coast and low off the southeast coast. Highs Wednesday will be 15-20 degrees below normal with 40s in the mountains to lower to mid 50s east, the warming gradually to 50s and 60s by Friday-Saturday. Frosty nights through the period, though temperatures do increase gradually. Should get a freeze for most by Thursday morning, and will see if its enough to end the growing season for our foothill and piedmont region. Forecast confidence is high on dry forecast this period and temperatures, average on cloud cover next weekend. && .AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 737 PM EDT Saturday... VFR conditions will prevail tonight. Westerly winds gusting 15 to 25 mph in the mountains will diminish this evening. A weak cold front in the mountains this evening will move southeast tonight into Sunday. A few light showers or sprinkles may be possible in the southwest mountains for the next couple of hours. For most of the taf sites, high clouds will increase tonight into Sunday. A few wind gusts over 15 knots are possible late Sunday morning. MVFR showers are possible Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. Confidence is moderate for ceilings,visibilities and winds during the taf period. Extended Aviation Discussion... Sub-VFR showers are possible Sunday night. A front crosses through the region on Monday leading in gusty wind Monday night and Tuesday and much colder air Tuesday night and Wednesday. A few upslope MVFR snow showers are possible for BLF and LWB Tuesday and Wednesday. Drier weather expected Thursday. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PH NEAR TERM...KK/PH SHORT TERM...DS LONG TERM...WP AVIATION...KK/PH