299 FXUS61 KCAR 160107 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 907 PM EDT Sat Oct 15 2022 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build toward the area this evening into Sunday. A warm front will approach from the south Sunday night, then slowly lifts north through the region Monday into Monday night. The cold front will slowly press east of the region Tuesday into Wednesday. High pressure begins to build toward the region from the west Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... 9:07 PM Update: Radar still indicating isolated showers in the eastern Saint John valley and eastern Washington County. This activity should move into New Brunswick in the next hour. The main concern overnight will be the fog potential. The combination of clearing, light/calm wind, and residual moisture from the recent heavy rain are good ingredients for fog, possibly dense later tonight into mid-morning Sunday. The other issue is lower clouds that have formed along the coast into central Piscataquis County. These lower clouds may continue to lower into areas of dense fog, but in spots they could also thin out which could lead to radiational fog. For now will hold off on a dense fog advisory, but one might be needed at some point overnight or early Sunday morning. Another reason not to issue at this time is that the areal coverage of any dense fog remains unknown. It is possible just about anywhere across the FA. Will continue to monitor the latest trends. Otherwise, just minor adjustments to account for the current conditions and to increase the cloud cover a bit in areas where it remains cloudy. Also, extended the small craft advisory with this update (please see marine section below). Previous discussion: The cold front and warm conveyor belt that dropped last night's heavy rains has moved just to the east of the forecast area in the Canadian Maritimes. With the southerly flow aloft, it continues to move slowly. Behind the front, altocu fields continue to move northward across the area late this afternoon into the evening. However, by later this evening, most of the area should see clear skies. Surface high pressure continues to build through the night and will ensure light winds. Cold air advection is weak and drier air will be slow to move into the area overnight. With last night's heavy rainfall and plenty of low level moisture, fog is the biggest concern for tonight into Sunday. The longer mid-October nights and dew points currently in the 50s adds further confidence to the fog threat. Can't rule out a Dense Fog Advisory, but would prefer to wait further into the evening and monitor trends before advertising exactly where visibility will drop to a quarter mile or less. For Sunday, fog will linger into the morning and will certainly take longer to burn off than recent months. However, by late morning, clear skies should prevail and highs should reach the lower 60s. Humidity will be lower as dew points drop into the 40s. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... The dry high pressure will be pushed off to the east as a strong occlusion moves into the region Sunday night. RH models show increasing clouds ahead of system which should keep temps from falling below freezing for the night. By Monday, the occluded front will push into the area from west to east, however rain isn’t expected to begin until the afternoon due to the upper level low slowly starts to move NE. Due to the SE flow, warm air will bring temps above normal. By Monday night, the occlusion will intensify and swing with frontal boundary into the region. The large amount of tropical moisture will rounding the bottom of the trough and lifting into our area will reinvigorate the surface occlusion and bring more widespread and potentially heavy rain late Monday night into Tuesday. The occlusion and rain will slide east of the state Tuesday afternoon while a surge of dry air circulates up from the southwest possibly bringing some breaks in the overcast. A LLJ is expected to move across the eastern parts of the state, creating gusty winds Tuesday morning through the afternoon. Expect above normal temps. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Some eastern areas could see some rain showers Tuesday night into Wednesday as the front exits. By Wednesday night, the rest of the showers will move off to the east as the occlusion circles around, bringing some lingering clouds to the west. Otherwise, a mostly inactive weekend and beginning of next week with high pressure lingering over the waters. Expect near normal temps for the period. && .AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: IFR at KBGR and KBHB in low clouds will continue into Sunday morning with dense fog possible late tonight into mid- morning Sunday. VFR at the Aroostook terminals will likely lower to IFR late tonight into mid-morning Sunday in fog. Conditions will improve back to VFR by 14/15Z. Light wind overnight and Sunday. SHORT TERM: Sunday night...VFR except in any patchy fog. Light and variable wind. Monday...VFR, possibly lowering to MVFR late. SE winds 5-10 kts. Monday night...MVFR lowering to IFR in rain. SE winds 5-15 kts. S LLWS. Tuesday...IFR improving to MVFR then VFR. S winds 10-15 kts. S LLWS Tuesday night...VFR except in patchy fog. Light and variable winds. Wednesday-Thursday...VFR. SW winds around 5 kts. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Long period south swell will continue to diminish slowly overnight, but with seas still running around 6 ft on the coastal waters have extended the SCA until 3 AM EDT Sunday morning. Fog over the will actually tend to move eastward away from the waters tonight as drier air arrives from the west. Sunday looks very uneventful with light and variable winds and seas subsiding to 2 to 4 ft range. SHORT TERM: A SCA will likely be needed Tuesday for S winds gusting up to 25 kt. Seas Tuesday into Tuesday evening may build up to 6 ft over the offshore waters and 4 to 5 ft across the intracoastal waters in response to the south wind. && .CLIMATE... 3.20" of rain was observed in Bangor, Maine today. Not only does that break the daily record for 10/15 of 2.05" set in 2005, it ranks as the 2nd wettest October day on record behind only October 8, 2005, when 3.98" was observed. Today ranks as the 20th wettest day on record in Bangor. Weather records in Bangor date back to 1925. && .EQUIPMENT... KCBW radar will be down through no later than October 17, 2022 due to planned Service Life Extension Program (SLEP) maintenance. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ050-051. && $$ Near Term...CB/MCW Short Term...LaFlash Long Term...LaFlash Aviation...CB/MCW/LaFlash Marine...CB/MCW/LaFlash Climate...CB Equipment...MCW