331 FXUS64 KHUN 160016 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 716 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2022 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Tonight) Issued at 302 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2022 Showers and storms are currently pushing east through northern MS and western TN, and a few showers will likely track across portions of NW AL and southern middle Tennessee over the next few hours. The limiting factor with this activity is the presence of very dry air near the sfc, with RH readings in the 30s%. Did add a slight chance for thunder given GLM trends and a few cloud flashes detected to our west. Outside of this potential, a beautiful afternoon and evening will continue across the Tennessee Valley as breezy southwest flow keeps warm temperatures over the area and highs top out in the low to mid 80s. Will keep low chances for showers/storms confined to extreme NW AL overnight, but most of the activity is expected to stay to our north and west through the overnight hours. Low confidence exists regarding the arrival time of prefrontal activity in the morning, so kept the forecast mostly dry until after 12z. Increased clouds and southerly flow will limit lows to the 50s tonight with no fog expected. && .SHORT TERM... (Sunday through Tuesday night) Issued at 302 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2022 Chances for showers and storms will increase Sunday afternoon as a cold front pushes south and east into northern TN and AR. Increased forcing will drive increasing coverage of showers and a few thunderstorms through the afternoon hours, but the best moisture convergence still looks to be be west of us. With the cold front lagging behind, will remain in the warm sectored airmass through the day on Sunday, with highs near 80 degrees and westerly flow at the sfc. For now, models are in fairly good agreement that the sfc front will push into NW AL between 06-12z on Monday, and we will dry and clear fairly quickly after that. A strong push of dry, polar air will surge into the area by Monday night, with daytime highs in the 60s and overnight lows falling to the upper 20s and lower 30s. A hard freeze might be realized across southern middle TN Monday night, and will monitor trends as a Freeze Watch might be needed. Highs on Tuesday will be limited to the 50s, making for the coldest day we have had since earlier this spring. Went below blended guidance with low temperatures given recent biases and trends. Freezing conditions are expected area wide by Tuesday night as high pressure anchors this cold airmass over the lower MS River Valley. A Freeze Warning will be likely during this time period. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 302 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2022 The cold and dry period will continue into Wednesday, as high temps remain in the 50s and similar lows are expected Wednesday night. Continued to go below blended guidance for lows through Thursday night, but temperatures will begin to rise on Thursday as the sfc high begins to lift to the northeast. Overnight lows will stay above freezing Thursday night, and temperatures will rise near 70 degrees on Friday. upper ridging will build over the eastern CONUS heading into the weekend, and warmer temps with a gradual increase in moisture is expected. Will maintain a dry forecast through the long term period for now. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 716 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2022 Light rain that impacted portions of NW AL earlier this aftn has largely dissipated, with VFR conditions featuring sct-bkn high clouds and light SW winds expected to persist this evening. There is some concern that an additional round of light rain could materialize across NW AL and southern TN during the early morning hours, but due to a lingering dry boundary layer, we do not anticipate significant fluctuations in either cig or vsby. Coverage of SHRA and perhaps a few embedded TSRA will begin to increase late in the TAF period, as a cold front approaches the region from the NW. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...25 SHORT TERM...25 LONG TERM...25 AVIATION...70/DD