327 FXUS61 KRLX 160012 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 812 PM EDT Sat Oct 15 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Showers/thunderstorms spread from south Sunday. Cold front Sunday night ushers in the coldest air of the season so far for early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 120 PM Saturday... Breezy and dry winds continue in the wake of a dry cold front this afternoon, rapidly tapering to light this evening. A reinforcing shot of drier air looks to stall somewhere in the vicinity of the Ohio River tonight, yielding dew points west of the Ohio River in the lower to mid 30s, and upper 30s to lower 40s east of the river. Clear skies and slackening winds should allow for strong radiational cooling which could result in some pockets of patchy frost across SE OH where the growing season remains active depending upon how quickly upper level cloudiness arrives. Based on limited impact of frost this close to the end of the growing season coupled with only patchy coverage, will elect to forgo a frost advisory for these counties tonight. The mountain counties where the growing season has already ended may also see some patchy frost, although this may be more fog than frost in the valleys where people live. Some isolated showers will be possible across SW VA as early as daybreak Sunday in the vicinity of a stalled surface boundary, but most locations in the forecast area will see a mainly dry day with only increasing upper and mid-level cloudiness. As moisture surges into the region on increasing southwesterly flow late Sunday afternoon, will see increasing precipitation chances for the southern half of the forecast area late afternoon into the evening hours. Sfc-6km shear of 50-55KTs would signal potential for updraft organization, but limited instability may yield updrafts too weak to avoid being sheared off. Would not be overly surprised to find portions of SW VA and S WV in a marginal risk outlook when the new Day 1 Convective Outlook is issued around 2 AM given the conditional threat. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 216 PM Saturday... Models suggest front will linger to our southeast before pushing away by Monday. Weak high pressure will then build in Monday night bringing precipitation chances to an end. Temperatures should be well below normal for much of the period. In fact, much of the region should see readings at or below freezing Monday night. This could bring an end to the growing season and frost/freeze program. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 102 PM Saturday... At the beginning of the period, an upper low will be located over southeastern Ontario with a trough extending southwest across Ohio into central Kentucky. The trough will slowly move southeast across the central Appalachians and middle Ohio Valley Tuesday night. Precipitation should begin to develop across northern portions of the region late Tuesday morning. Precipitation chances should then diminish early Wednesday. The airmass will initially be quite dry which should limit the southern extent of the precipitation during this event. The moisture across the north will diminish on Wednesday as the trough and resultant forcing move away. The airmass will be cold enough for some of the precipitation to begin as snow across far northern West Virginia and the higher elevations before the precipitation changes to rain by late Tuesday morning across the northern lowlands. The precipitation will change back to snow Tuesday night before ending on Wednesday. Any snow accumulations should be light and limited to the northern mountains. High pressure should then begin to build into the area on Wednesday before a weak cold front pushes east Thursday night into Friday. Once again, moisture will be limited and currently think the front will only bring some clouds to the area. High pressure will then take control for Saturday. Outside of the possibility of some snow during this period, overnight lows will be quite cold with temperatures generally in the 30s. Current thinking is that most areas will see a killing frost or freeze Tuesday night or Wednesday night. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 740 PM Sunday... VFR conditions prevail overnight with diminishing conditions expected at 23Z for BKW as a frontal boundary moves up from the south. This anticipated front spreads showers around CRW and HTS after 20Z. LIFR visibilities were maintained at EKN for tonight with improvement expected by 14Z. Calm winds tonight increase out of the southwest Sunday morning. Gusts along the southeast mountains develop ahead of the front with gusts included for BKW at 15Z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog may not develop at EKN overnight if upper level clouds arrive earlier than anticipated. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SUN 10/16/22 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M L L L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 00Z MONDAY... IFR possible in snow showers in the higher mountainous terrain Tuesday night into Wednesday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JSH/JP NEAR TERM...JP SHORT TERM...JSH LONG TERM...JSH AVIATION...KH