799 FXUS65 KPUB 121743 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1143 AM MDT Wed Oct 12 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 911 AM MDT Wed Oct 12 2022 No big changes to the forecast for today, other than to expire the Freeze Warning across the San Luis Valley this morning. Temperatures in this location have quickly risen well into the 40s, with forecast highs around 70 expected today. No change to the Freeze and Hard Freeze Warnings in effect tonight for the San Luis Valley. && .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 350 AM MDT Wed Oct 12 2022 Key Messages: 1. Very quiet day. 2. Hard Freeze Warning for lower 2/3 of San Luis Valley early Thursday morning. Today Expecting quiet conditions throughout south central and southeast Colorado throughout the forecast period. A large closed low centered near the Great Lakes region and the smaller closed low off the coast of California are interacting with a high pressure system situated off the Oregon coast, bringing a progressively drier northwest flow aloft. This will mix to the surface and bring seasonably cool temperatures and lower humidities throughout the region. High temperatures today will be in the mid to upper 70s from the I-25 corridor eastward, and in the upper 60s to lower 70s in the mountains and mountain valleys. Winds will be mostly light except for the higher elevations. No precipitation is anticipated throughout the region. Fire weather concerns should not be present as the humidities may be low enough, but the wind velocities will not meet the threshold. Tonight The quiet weather continues with the same synoptic set up as earlier in the day. The clear skies will allow for radiational cooling throughout south central and southeastern Colorado. Winds will remain light and low temperatures will be in the mid to upper 30s along the I-25 corridor eastward and in the 20s and 30s in the mountains and mountain valleys. Area of concern will be during the early morning hours in the San Luis Valley as temps in the mid 20s in the lower 2/3 of the Valley will necessitate a Hard Freeze Warning, and temps in the upper 20s in the upper 1/3 of the valley will bring a Freeze Warning. -Riser .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 350 AM MDT Wed Oct 12 2022 Models are back in general agreement through the extended period, with slight differences in the storm track of an upper low across the Desert Southwest Sunday into Tuesday. Thursday through Saturday...an amplified upper pattern will remain in place across the county, with troughing along the East Coast and upper ridging over the Pacific Northwest. This will keep dry, persistent northwesterly flow across Colorado. Temperatures will be pleasant across Colorado, with 60s and 70s for highs. The San Luis Valley will continue to see overnight lows in the mid 20s to lower 30s. At this time, temperatures should remain above freezing across the Plains, with the coldest temperatures expected Thursday night. Sunday through Wednesday...an upper low off the California coast is forecast to track eastward across the Desert Southwest Sunday into Tuesday. For the most part, the operational models are in agreement on the track with slight differences in the northward extent of moisture. Expect an increase in shower activity for the San Juan and southern Sangre de Cristo Mountain ranges, and areas along the New Mexico border by Sunday, and prevailing into Monday, and finally dissipating by Tuesday. The GFS is most aggressive with bringing precipitation northward, with showers up to Highway 50. The ECMWF and Canadian have much less, with most precipitation confined to northern New Mexico, up to the border. NBM guidance split the difference, and did not see any reason to change from the guidance. Drier conditions are expected Tuesday into Wednesday with the trough well to the southeast and high pressure rebuilding across Colorado. Temperatures will remain seasonal, with mostly 60s for highs and upper 30s to lower 40s for lows on the Plains. Mozley && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) Issued at 1141 AM MDT Wed Oct 12 2022 VFR conditions and dry weather are expected to persist across the TAF sites this forecast period. Generally light winds, though a boundary dropping south across the plains will bring a period of gusty north to northeast winds at COS and PUB this afternoon into early evening. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM MDT Thursday for COZ069. Hard Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM MDT Thursday for COZ070- 071. && $$ UPDATE...RODRIGUEZ SHORT TERM...RISER LONG TERM...MOZLEY AVIATION...RODRIGUEZ