284 FXUS64 KSJT 111906 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 206 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022 ...New SHORT TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 205 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022 Although an isolated shower or thunderstorms is possible this afternoon across the Big Country and western Concho Valley, mainly dry conditions are forecast to persist. A large upper level through will track across the Great Plains tonight into Wednesday morning, sending a cold front into the Big Country Wednesday morning. Ahead of the front, overnight low temperatures will be in the low to mid 60s. Behind the front, expect gusty north winds of 12 to 18 mph. High resolution models are a bit faster with the front than previously forecast. This will result in highs in the 80s across the northern half of the area, with low to mid 90s across the southern half of the region. No rain is forecast on Wednesday. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 315 AM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022 Dry conditions return for Wednesday as surface winds shift southwest and then west ahead of a cold front. Front arrives in time to have an effect on temperatures north of I-20 with highs in the low to mid 80s. Farther south, front doesn't arrive until after peak heating and this allows temperatures to soar into the lower and perhaps even mid 90s across the Hill Country. Generally dry and warm through Saturday as an upper level ridge moves into the area from the west ahead of a more potent upper trough developing across the southwest US. Dry air mass will allow for temperatures in the 50s during the morning and 80s to near 90 in the afternoon. Next weekend looks to be the next weather story across the area as the upper level trough approaches and a stronger cold front moves through the area. Precip chances start Saturday Night and increase on Sunday as the front moves into the area. Most models are showing significant post frontal precipitation for Sunday into early next week, along with much cooler temperatures. Will start the trend down for highs on Monday and await later models to see just how cool we will end up by Tuesday or Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1129 AM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022 Early this afternoon, stratus is still resulting in MVFR ceilings. Expect the stratus to slowly dissipate through the next couple of hours, with VFR conditions returning early this afternoon. Gusty south winds will decrease below 10 knots this evening, except at KABI where winds will remain between 10 and 15 knots. A cold front will approach KABI by mid to late morning, resulting in gusty north winds of 12 to 15 knots. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 66 83 55 83 / 10 0 0 0 San Angelo 64 89 55 86 / 0 0 0 0 Junction 62 94 56 89 / 0 0 0 0 Brownwood 63 90 54 86 / 10 0 0 0 Sweetwater 65 81 56 83 / 0 0 0 0 Ozona 60 88 56 86 / 0 0 0 0 Brady 65 91 56 86 / 10 0 0 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Daniels LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...Daniels