718 FXUS62 KTAE 081436 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 1036 AM EDT Sat Oct 8 2022 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 1036 AM EDT Sat Oct 8 2022 The forecast is on track this morning, updates are not required. && .NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]... Surface high pressure is forecast to slide east from the central plains into the Mid-Atlantic states during the day today. As this happens today, a slight tightening of the pressure gradient across the region is expected. This will lead to slightly stronger northerly winds at around 10 mph by this afternoon. This will also be in conjunction with a dry cold front that passes through the area today and tonight. With high pressure remaining continuing to remain quasi-stationary across the eastern conus, fair weather is expected to continue. The one caveat with surface high pressure over the region is that subsidence aloft will be present leading to a warm day with highs once again in the in the mid to upper 80s forecast areawide. Temperatures overnight will still be cool with lows in the mid to upper 50s areawide. The biggest concern through the near term period will be fire weather given the continued warm and dry conditions. .SHORT TERM [Sunday Through Monday]... Broad upper level troughing over the Great Lakes and surface high pressure over the eastern sea board will lead to dry and near seasonal weather. High temperatures in the low to mid 80s for SE AL, much of SW GA, and the western FL Panhandle will be observed while the SE Big Bend makes it into the mid to upper 80s. Overnight lows Sunday night into Monday will continue to feel fall like and span from the low to mid 50s inland areas west of the Flint and Apalachicola Rivers, while areas east range from the mid 50s to low 60s .LONG TERM [Monday Night Through Saturday]... Upper level ridging builds in for the first half of the work week, leading to above normal daytime highs while conditions remain dry. Troughing from the Central Plains will then dig and move east, leading to another pattern change. NBM and deterministic models hint at the chance for showers and thunderstorms mid to late week as a frontal passage moves through the region. Dry air is forecast behind the frontal passage. && .SHORT TERM [Sunday Through Monday]... Broad upper level troughing over the Great Lakes and surface high pressure over the eastern sea board will lead to dry and near seasonal weather. High temperatures in the low to mid 80s for SE AL, much of SW GA, and the western FL Panhandle will be observed while the SE Big Bend makes it into the mid to upper 80s. Overnight lows Sunday night into Monday will continue to feel fall like and span from the low to mid 50s inland areas west of the Flint and Apalachicola Rivers, while areas east range from the mid 50s to low 60s .LONG TERM [Monday Night Through Saturday]... Upper level ridging builds in for the first half of the work week, leading to above normal daytime highs while conditions remain dry. Troughing from the Central Plains will then dig and move east, leading to another pattern change. NBM and deterministic models hint at the chance for showers and thunderstorms mid to late week as a frontal passage moves through the region. Dry air is forecast behind the frontal passage. && .LONG TERM [Monday Night Through Saturday]... Upper level ridging builds in for the first half of the work week, leading to above normal daytime highs while conditions remain dry. Troughing from the Central Plains will then dig and move east, leading to another pattern change. NBM and deterministic models hint at the chance for showers and thunderstorms mid to late week as a frontal passage moves through the region. Dry air is forecast behind the frontal passage. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 634 AM EDT Sat Oct 8 2022 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period. As a dry cold front pushes through the region today and tonight, some scattered to broken upper level clouds will be present; however, VFR conditions will remain. Winds will also remain northerly at around 5 to 10 knots through the TAF period. As the front passes, there will also be some LLWS throughout the day. This is currently being observed at VLD and ABY terminals this morning. && .MARINE... Northerly winds will gradually become easterly and eventually southeasterly by the end of the week. Periods of cautionary conditions are expected during the overnight and early morning hours throughout the upcoming week. Seas will respond and vary from 1 to 4 feet. && .FIRE WEATHER... The passage of a dry cold front today will lead to a slight increase in northerly winds to around 5-10 mph by this afternoon. Fortunately, there will be a slight increase in moisture across the area, with minimum RH values forecast to hover around 30% by this afternoon. A few areas in SE Alabama could see slightly lower values in the low to mid 20s today. Given the slight increase in winds today, dispersions are forecast to be high across the area. By Sunday, humidity is forecast to fall once again, especially across SE Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. During this time, winds will predominantly remain out of the north at around 5-10 mph. Given the dry air, fuels, and soils, an elevated fire danger will persist across the region; however, Red Flag Criteria is not expected to be met. && .HYDROLOGY... There are currently no hydrology concerns at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 87 58 86 58 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 86 60 83 58 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 85 52 81 51 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 85 53 82 54 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 87 58 86 59 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 88 60 88 62 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 84 63 83 61 / 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Bunker SHORT TERM...KR LONG TERM....KR AVIATION...Bunker MARINE...KR FIRE WEATHER...Bunker HYDROLOGY...KR