795 FXUS61 KCTP 080910 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 510 AM EDT Sat Oct 8 2022 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure centered south and west of the state will keep most of the area dry until the middle of next week when a significant cold front should pass through. A few light, passing showers are possible in the northern tier today and again Sunday night and Monday. Frost is possible on Sunday morning. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... For the most part, the short fetch across LE is keep it mainly dry over the Alleghenies and Laurels. But where there is a two- lake fetch, some of the SHRA are making it into our CWA. It may make the ground wet there, but even that might be too strong wording for this forecast. Clearing SE of the Allegheny Front, but wind still 4-8KT at all obs at 08Z. The day will hold much of the same cloud-wise, but expansion of the clouds to the SE is expected as we mix and some diurnal cu appear. The wind should pick up with gusts into the teens, and perhaps 20KT, while backing slightly. Downsloping should help keep the SE milder than everyone else, but still turn out 5-10F below normals there. Western locations will be more like 10-15F below normal. Biggest discussion this shift was whether to post any frost advys, and where those might be. Clear sky S of the nrn tier of the state is a plus. Temps should get into the m-u30s all over the area tonight. Lots of uncertainty in the wind dept tonight. Most models and MOS output indicate that the air won't go calm in most places, especially in the NW half of the CWA. Still too much of a gradient. Calm air is certainly possible for short periods overnight, mainly in the valleys to the SE of the Allegheny Front. Even the relatively higher ground of the SE and Poconos could keep too much wind. Will forego issuing a frost advy this morning. Future shifts will look at this forecast challenge further. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/... Temps rebound 20-30F on Sunday, putting maxes back within 5F of normal for most locations. We'll be between short-wave troughs, and pretty much straight westerly flow sfc and aloft will keep much of the lake-induced cloud cover to our north. The wind goes back up to 10KT or so, and gusts back into the m-uTeens. That will probably keep it feeling slightly chilly in the shade. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Main change was to adjust POPS a bit across the far north on Monday, given secondary cold front. While the main risk of showers will be mainly north of the border, a few drops of rain will be possible, as the airmass cools aloft and winds shift more to the northwest aloft. Models show a lot of spread from run to run and day to day. EC might support a larger warm up on Thursday and a slower cold front passage later next week, but did not change much, forecast based on forecast builder for now. Earlier discussion below. All medium range guidance tracks a shortwave and associated dying cold front into the area Monday, but the lack of moisture and weak forcing indicate this feature will likely come through dry. Rising heights and the presence of a large surface high along the east coast should ensure fair weather through the first half of next week with temperatures returning to near seasonable levels. ECENS and GEFS plumes indicate the next chance of rain showers will come Wed night into Thu in association with a frontal system front pressing in from the Grt Lks. Cooler air will move in behind the front for Fri-Sat, along with the chance for lake effect rain showers. && .AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... In post frontal northwest flow, expect MVFR to occasional IFR cigs at BFD and JST, but generally VFR elsewhere. NW winds will gust into the mid teens to around 20 kts Saturday. Outlook... Sat...MVFR cigs with ocnl -shra NW Mtns and Laurel Highlands. Otherwise, low VFR cigs. Sun and Mon...Mainly VFR expected. Gusty W wind. Tue...VFR and less windy. Wed...VFR. && .EQUIPMENT... Wind has returned to the KBFD obs after completion of regular maintenance/upgrades on the ASOS. A similar interruption will begin at KFIG on Monday, and then at many other terminals across Central PA over the next few weeks. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lambert/Martin NEAR TERM...Dangelo SHORT TERM...Dangelo LONG TERM...Martin/Colbert AVIATION...Gartner/Travis EQUIPMENT...