603 
FXUS64 KJAN 072330
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
630 PM CDT Fri Oct 7 2022

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 236 PM CDT Fri Oct 7 2022

Tonight and Tomorrow...

With the dry cold front expected to move over our area later 
tonight, broad isentrophic ascent will help maintain some mid-high 
level cloudiness as we head into the overnight period. This increase 
in cloud cover, along with steady northly winds, will help limit the 
effect of radiational cooling. With these clouds in place, expect 
overnight temperatures to drop into the upper 50s. Winds will remain 
somewhat northerly with gusts between 10-15 mph.

By Saturday morning, the cold front is forecasted to push south out 
of our area leaving behind a drier and cooler airmass. This airmass 
will allow for afternoon temperatures to be roughly ten degrees 
cooler then the previous day and peak around the upper 70s with 
areas south of I-20 reaching the low 80s. Primary concern for 
tomorrow continues to be fire danger potential. Relaitive humidity 
(RH) values are forecasted to drop between 30-35% later in the 
afternoon. Winds gusts up to 15 mph will be possible. We have 
included an updated fire weather risk graphic into the HWO for our 
CWA through this weekend. /CRJ/

Sunday through Friday... Longer range guidance continues to 
support a pattern change to something more progressive by back end
of next week. Also associated with that is a large scale trough 
and deep surface low that will likely take shape and help usher in
colder air in its wake. Additionally, such a system is trending 
to be a better rain maker for Wed into Thu which would be very 
welcomed.

In the medium range periods, Sun-Tue, an area of surface high 
pressure will linger over the S/SE. The orientation of this airmass 
will provide for the surface ridge axis to be established over our 
area and support good radiative conditions these nights. Look for 
lows in the mid 40s to lower 50s Sun-Mon with some steady 
modification each day into mid week. /CME/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 628 PM CDT Fri Oct 7 2022

VFR conditions with northerly sfc wind will prevail through the
forecast period. Fairly strong boundary layer mixing could lead to
gusty sfc wind from late morning Saturday through the afternoon.
/EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       60  79  51  78 /   0   0   0   0 
Meridian      57  78  48  76 /   0   0   0   0 
Vicksburg     59  81  50  80 /   0   0   0   0 
Hattiesburg   61  83  50  80 /   0   0   0   0 
Natchez       60  81  53  80 /   0   0   0   0 
Greenville    55  78  47  80 /   0   0   0   0 
Greenwood     54  77  46  78 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

CR/CME/EC