859 FXUS62 KRAH 072311 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 711 PM EDT Fri Oct 7 2022 .SYNOPSIS... A strong, but moisture-starved cold front will cross the region tonight. Canadian high pressure will follow and extend from the mid MS Valley to the mid-Atlantic through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 257 PM Friday... Embedded within the long wave trough in place across the central and eastern CONUS, a positively-tilted shortwave trough diving SEwd into the Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes region will progress east into the NE US and northern mid-Atlantic states by daybreak. The pre- frontal trough in place across central NC will migrate eastward ahead of the attendant strong but moisture starved cold front that will move into the area during the evening and overnight hours. Expect an increase in mid and high clouds during the evening and overnight hours as the front moves into the area. Otherwise, it will remain dry with strong post-frontal cold dry air advection during the second half of the night and into Saturday as Canadian high pressure builds into the area. Min temps tonight will range from around 50 north to mid/upper 50s southeast. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 257 PM Friday... In the wake of the front, Canadian high pressure centered over the mid MS Valley will build east into the Carolinas through early Sunday. The shortwave trough and attendant phased jet streak that will traverse the region during the day on Saturday will produce a mixture of sun and clouds through the day that should dissipate during the evening. Daytime highs are expected to average 5 to 10 degrees below normal, ranging from lower/mid 60s north to lower 70s south with periodic gustiness of 15 to 20 mph into the early afternoon before diminishing. Clear skies, a dry airmass, and light winds associated with the high pressure will allow for optimal radiational cooling with temperatures dropping quickly once the sun descends in the horizon Expect chilly overnight lows in the upper 30s north to mid-40s across the south. Patchy light frost will be possible in the typically cold locations across the Piedmont where temps could bottom out in the mid-30s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 135 PM Friday... High pressure will dominate the weather across much of the central and eastern United States for much of the week, allowing for mostly clear skies Sunday through Wednesday. A low pressure system will track across Canada, and although the low itself will stay in Canada for much of the week, its associated cold front will extend south across a majority of the United States. By Thursday morning, the cold front will reach across the Great Lakes towards the Gulf Coast, and there is the usual disagreement between the models this far out with the specific timing of the frontal passage in central NC. Right now, it appears that the most likely chance for rain will be Thursday PM. A shower could linger along I-95 into Friday morning. Temperatures will steadily increase through the week, reaching slightly above normal values by Thursday, before returning to near normal values behind the cold front on Friday. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 710 PM Friday... 24 hour TAF period: High confidence VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Mid/high clouds will increase through tonight. As a dry cold front moves through the area tonight, winds will shift from swly to nwly and increase a bit briefly, then become more north-northeasterly and gusty everywhere Sat morning. Clouds will likely linger through the day Sat, decreasing in coverage Sat night. Looking ahead: Cloud cover should decrease and winds should relax a bit Sat night into Sun. VFR conditions should prevail through Wednesday. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MWS NEAR TERM...CBL SHORT TERM...CBL LONG TERM...Green AVIATION...KC/CBL