832 
FXAK69 PAFG 072309
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
309 PM AKDT Fri Oct 7 2022

.SYNOPSIS...Coastal flood potential will diminish this evening
into Saturday north of the Bering strait. A mix of rain and snow 
will spread across the state over the weekend. Strong westerly 
winds will develop over the north slope coast Sunday into Tuesday.

.DISCUSSION...Aloft...At 500 hpa...A strong shortwave will move 
over the state on Saturday and Sunday. Strong west southwestly 
flow will continue over the state through the weekend. An upper
level low will push into Bristol Bay on Monday. Strong westerly
flow will set up over the Arctic early next week. Turning colder
for much of the State Sunday into Tuesday.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...A 958 mb low 400 NM NW of 
Utqiagvik will move to 550 NM north of Utqiagvik as a 964 mb low 
by 4pm Fri, then continue north. Strong west winds still occurring
along the north slope this afternoon. Winds will diminish some
tonight and Saturday then pick back up on Sunday. Arctic Coast 
will have elevated water levels and elevated surf along with snow 
showers Sun into Tuesday. West winds will be around 15 to 25 kts.


West Coast and Western Interior...Coastal flooding and high surf
still possible north of the Bering strait today. Water levels 
will begin to drop this evening. A low west of Shemya will move 
east to Bristol Bay as a 994 mb low by 4pm Sat, to the Kenai Pen 
by 4am Sun, and to near Ft Yukon as a 990 mb low by Sunday 
morning. Rain and snow will develop over the western Interior on 
Saturday and push to the east into the Interior Saturday night.

Central and Eastern Interior...A weather front has moved through
the Interior bringing rain showers this morning. Precip still
occuring south of Eielson afb this afternoon. Precip will pick
back up again on Saturday. Winds in the Alaska Range have dropped
off but will pick back up Saturday morning and continue into 
Saturday evening. Expected winds of 25 to 40 mph gusts to 50 mph 
around Delta Junction Gusts to 60 mph in the Alaska range. Wind
advisories have been reissued for those areas. A strong front 
will bring a mix of rain and snow is expected across the Interior 
Saturday evening into Sunday. At valley level, such as in 
Fairbanks, most of the snow should melt as it hits the ground but 
less than an inch is possible at valley level. At elevations above
1000 feet, between 2 and 4 inches of snow accumulation is 
possible, especially along the Elliott and Dalton highways. Up to 
6 inches in the Alaska Range. Precipitation could be heavy at 
times on Sunday. West winds gusting to 30 mph over summits are 
possible on Sunday. Turning colder Sunday night into Monday.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...Arctic Coast will have 
elevated water levels and elevated surf Sun into Tue with west 
winds 15-25 kt. 

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...A 984 mb low will move into
Bristol Bay on Monday and move inland Monday night. Strongest 
winds and precipitation south of Hooper Bay. A low will move
across the high Arctic on Tuesday bringing strong winds and
snow showers to the north slope coast.



&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Coastal Flood Warning for AKZ201-202.
     High Wind Warning for AKZ202.
     Coastal Flood Advisory for AKZ211.
     High Surf Advisory for AKZ212-213.
     Coastal Flood Warning for AKZ207.
     Coastal Flood Warning for AKZ209.
     Coastal Flood Advisory for AKZ210.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ201-210-215.
     Gale Warning for PKZ235.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ240.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ245.
&&

$$