118 FXUS66 KOTX 072147 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 247 PM PDT Fri Oct 7 2022 .SYNOPSIS.... High pressure will continue to bring warm and dry weather through the weekend. Temperatures each afternoon will climb 10 to 15 degrees above the seasonal normals. This pattern will likely continue through Monday followed by cooler temperatures and a slight chance of showers on Monday night along the Canadian border. The dry weather pattern is expected to continue through next week. && .DISCUSSION... Tonight through Sunday night: An upper ridge will persist through the weekend with little change in the weather compared to what has occurred the past several days. Haze has been added to the forecast due to increase in hazy skies the past couple days from multiple prescribed burns, and some wildfire smoke contributions as well. With high pressure and light winds through the weekend this is expected to change little. Smoke from the White River and Mineral Ridge fires will continue to produce smoke due to the warm and dry conditions. Smoke will especially impact areas around Lake Wenatchee, but downvalley winds during the overnight hours into the early afternoon will bring some of this smoke down the Wenatchee River Valley as well into Wenatchee, and down the Columbia River into Vantage. Temperatures will continue to be 10 to 15 degrees above normal. JW Monday and Tuesday: Monday a trough will begin to move down from Canada and approach the Inland Northwest. Unfortunately, models have been struggling with the play out of the trough and cold front. The 12Z EC and ensembles have trended toward the Canadian and ensembles of cutting that trough closer to us. When looking at all three ensemble forecasts, they are now producing very light precipitation along the Canadian border and ID Panhandle, albeit very light...0.05 or less. Canadian has a bit more precip than that for the ID Panhandle. It is a 45/55 split over the trough vs the ridge remaining and the trough going further east. Our chance of precipitation has increased to about 20% for Monday evening into early Tuesday morning with the frontal passage across the north. Winds will shift from southerly on Monday to northerly by Tuesday morning. Winds could gust 15 to 25 mph late Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning. Very dry air will move in by Tuesday providing even drier RH values that what was seen previous days. Wednesday through Friday: The ridge pops right back up across the region, bringing mostly clear skies and very light winds. Temperatures will warm into the upper 60s to mid 70s, which is 8 to 12 degrees above average for mid October. Min temps will be in the mid 30s to mid 40s, with some parts of central WA seeing low 50s. This is about 2 to 8 degrees above average. /Nisbet && .AVIATION... 00Z TAFS: VFR conditions will prevail at all forecast sites with exception of KEAT which will occasionally be impacted by smoke from the White River/Minnow Ridge fires. Diurnal trends are for southeast winds around mid to late afternoon to bring improved visibility with VFR conditions. Drainage winds during the overnight hours will bring smoke back into KEAT with potential for MVFR conditions. JW && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Spokane 49 76 49 76 49 75 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Coeur d'Alene 46 75 46 75 46 74 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pullman 47 76 47 76 43 74 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 51 78 51 78 51 79 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Colville 39 79 39 79 36 75 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Sandpoint 45 74 45 74 40 69 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Kellogg 54 75 53 75 50 71 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Moses Lake 48 82 48 82 45 79 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 52 78 51 78 54 80 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 53 78 53 79 47 77 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. WA...None. && $$