558 FXCA62 TJSJ 072051 AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 451 PM AST Fri Oct 7 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Active weather is expected across the islands through at least the weekend, and likely into early in the next workweek. This is associated with an upper-level trough providing instability over the region and an influx in moisture. Typical marine conditions are expected for the local waters, with seas of up to 5 feet, and a low to moderate risk of rip currents for local beaches. && .SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday... Moisture has moved into the region, with satellite estimated precipitable water values of around 1.9 to 2.1 inches. This area of moisture is currently over the USVI and northeastern Puerto Rico; PWAT values are generally within seasonal normals or higher across the islands. Meanwhile, an upper-level trough is approaching from the east, providing instability over the area. Enhanced moisture and instability will persist through the weekend over the region, which will result in enhanced shower and thunderstorm activity. Though showers are likely to be relatively quick-moving, there is the potential for locally high rainfall totals in areas that see the strongest showers/heaviest rainfall and areas that see repeated shower activity and training of storms. As such, there is an enhanced risk for urban and small stream flooding, and localized flash flooding cannot be ruled out. && .LONG TERM...Monday through Saturday...From Prev Discussion... A surface high pressure located in the central Atlantic is expected to dominate for the first half of the long-term period. Nonetheless, in our local area, a seasonal weather scenario is forecasted for all the islands. By Monday, a tropical wave located east of the Leeward Islands is expected to bring showers and isolated thunderstorms. Winds are expected to shift from a more southeasterly flow, local afternoon convection is likely to be centered over the northwestern and western portions of Puerto Rico. The US Virgin Islands can expect morning showers across the area and scattered showers during the afternoons. This tropical wave will bring additional moisture content from the Caribbean that is forecasted to persist until Wednesday. From Thursday through Saturday, winds will persist with a east-southeast flow and shower activity will be observed across the northwestern, western and northern portions of Puerto Rico. Although, a slightly drier air mass will filter in to the region limiting the activity to the mentioned portions. A frontal boundary will move out of the eastern coast of the United States and associated moisture could reach the local area by the beginning of the following week. Heat index values will remain above 100 degrees each day, mostly over urban and coastal areas across north-central Puerto Rico. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) VCSH expected across the local terminals for the rest of today. VCTS is possible at TJBQ through 07/21Z. Winds will continue from the East at 10-15 KT with occasional gusts through 07/22Z, will weaken thereafter, while VCSH will remain possible overnight at IST, ISX, and JSJ. The local winds will increase once again after 08/13Z with sea breeze variations developing as well. SHRA/TSRA possible once again after 08/17Z, causing VCTS at TJBQ. && .MARINE... Moderate to fresh winds, with speeds of up to 15 to 20 knots, will maintain some choppy conditions across the waters. Still, seas will generally remain around 5 feet or less. There is a moderate risk of rip currents for nearly all local beaches, though modest improvement is expected for tomorrow. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...None. VI...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...WS LONG TERM....CRS AVIATION...WS PUBLIC...CVB