913 FXUS61 KOKX 071957 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 357 PM EDT Fri Oct 7 2022 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front moves across this evening followed by high pressure gradually building in from the west for the weekend. High pressure south of the area on Sunday will give way to a weakening frontal boundary from the north on Monday. Another high over the Great Lakes will strengthen over the area during mid week, then slowly move east beginning Wednesday night. A cold front over the Midwest on Thursday will slowly approach later in the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... Cold front will begin entering the region from the north and west late this afternoon and early this evening. The front then quickly moves offshore. The flow ahead of the front is WSW-W which has allowed drier to mix down to the surface. An isolated shower has developed ahead of the front in the Lower Hudson Valley. Will still carry a slight chance NW of the NYC metro into early this evening, but conditions should largely remain dry with the cold front passage. The main upper trough lags behind the cold front passage. A jet streak streak strengthens as it rounds the base of the trough over the southeast and Middle Atlantic tonight. By early Saturday morning, eastern portions of the area will lie in the favorable left exit region of this 100-120 kt jet streak. There is limited moisture to work with, but middle and upper level clouds increase tonight ahead of the trough with mostly-cloudy to overcast conditions from around the NYC metro on east early Saturday morning. The lift from the jet streak should be enough to support light rain development across mainly Long Island and southeast CT late tonight into early Saturday morning. Have also bumped PoPs up to likely for eastern Long Island. A few hundredths of an inch are possible in this light rain. Otherwise, cold advection takes place behind the cold front passage tonight. NW flow behind the front ushers in cooler air with temperatures falling into the 40s inland and upper 40s to low 50s near the coast. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Lift from the passing jet streak and associated shortwave trough move offshore quickly after day break Saturday. Clouds and any associated light rain will follow and move well to the east around 11-13z. Another shortwave rounds the base of the larger upper trough over the eastern states during the day, but the atmosphere is significantly dry. The shortwave may bring some scattered stratocu in the afternoon, but otherwise mostly clear to partly cloudy skies are forecast. The bigger story for Saturday will be the much cooler temperatures. 850 mb temperatures look to fall to around 1C to -2 C during the day. This will combine with a breezy NW flow to bring temperatures struggling to reach 60 degrees. Most locations should only reach the upper 50s, with the best shot at 60 degrees towards the coast. High pressure builds to our south and west on Saturday, which will leave a modest pressure gradient over the area. Boundary layer winds are not that strong, but could see some gusts to around 20 mph, especially in the afternoon. Winds will weaken in the evening with loss of daytime heating. One of the coldest nights of Fall 2022 is forecast for Saturday night. Winds become light, especially inland with clear skies and a dry atmosphere supporting temperatures falling into the middle and upper 30s inland. Lows elsewhere should be in the lower to middle 40s. There may be some patchy front across interior as well. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A broad upper trough aloft will persist to start the period, with an embedded shortwave disturbance moving across on Monday, which will send a weakening/moisture-starved front toward the area on Monday, which should wash out nearby or just south. Heights aloft rise in the wake of the shortwave passage, with deep layer ridging building over the area beginning Tue. Radiational cooling under mostly clear skies/light winds and nighttime temps falling below afternoon crossover dewpoints from the previous afternoon may result in patchy fog mainly inland across parts of eastern Long Island each predawn and early daylight hours from Mon through Wed. Dry wx should continue into at least Thu AM. GFS likely too fast with the approach of a cold front in advance of a deepening closed low over the Plains states later in the week, while the latest ECMWF is much slower than earlier guidance, keeping the front to the west through the forecast period, with light WAA precip well in advance. Not sure yet if this is a valid trend or an outlier solution, so followed NBM for now, which maintains better continuity of earlier guidance bringing the front through on Friday. Daytime temps up to a few degrees below normal on Sunday should moderate to near normal on Mon, and to a few deg above normal for Tue-Fri. WAA should result in nighttime temps well above normal Wed night and Thu night. && .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Low pressure well to the north will bring a cold front through the terminals early this evening. High pressure builds in from the west tonight. VFR. There is a low chance of light rain late tonight along the coast (possibly KJFK and KBDR but mainly KISP and KGON) with no impacts to flight categories expected. Light SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts 15-20kt developing ahead of the cold front this afternoon. Gusts continue in the NW flow following the cold frontal passage late afternoon/early evening. A few gusts may reach just over 20 kt. Gusts expected to end after 03Z Saturday but may be off by an hour or two. Gusts may be more occasional this afternoon. Northwest flow continue late this evening and overnight. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... No unscheduled amendments expected. Gusts may be more occasional late this afternoon into this evening. Timing of the cold front passage this evening may be off +/- an hour. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... .Saturday...VFR. NW winds G15-20kt. .Sunday...VFR. W winds G15-20kt. .Monday through Wednesday...VFR. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... A cold front moves across the waters this evening. Some gusts around 20 kt are possible this evening, but conditions should remain below SCA levels. Winds and seas should then remain below SCA levels into Saturday night with just a few gusts on the waters to 20 kt during the day Saturday. Fairly quiet from Sunday through Wed with high pressure mostly in control. Longer fetch W flow up to 20 kt on Sunday via high pressure to the south could lead to a brief period of 5-ft ocean seas Sunday afternoon E of Moriches Inlet. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic impacts are anticipated through the middle of next week. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BG/DS NEAR TERM...DS SHORT TERM...DS LONG TERM...BG AVIATION...MW MARINE...BG/DS HYDROLOGY...BG/DS