894 FXUS64 KSHV 071952 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 252 PM CDT Fri Oct 7 2022 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday Night) Issued at 249 PM CDT Fri Oct 7 2022 Dry and mostly seasonable conditions will remain in place across the Ark-La-Tex through the weekend as the next air mass gradually shifts southward behind a weak frontal boundary. This area of high pressure will usher in stronger northeasterly surface flow and dew points in the lower 50s (and upper 40s) that reinforce pleasant outdoor conditions (and subsequent minimum temperatures in the upper 50s and lower 60s). This drier and cooler air mass will allow maximum temperatures by tomorrow afternoon to only reach the upper 70s and lower 80s. Slightly cooler than normal temperatures will also continue into tomorrow night with minimums in the 50s and northeasterly winds waning as the center axis of the elongated surface ridge arrives over the area. /16/ && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 249 PM CDT Fri Oct 7 2022 Sfc ridge axis will be directly ovhd on Sunday and this will begin a warming trend that will continue through the middle of the upcoming work week. This ridge axis will continue to push south and east through our region with the end result being a return to southerly winds. It's these southerly winds that will allow our afternoon temperatures to return to the upper 80s to near 90 degrees both Tue and Wed of next week. What southerly flow will also do is allow for a steady uptick in low level moisture as we await the necessary dynamics upstream for rain chances. Taking a look at the upper levels, weak upper ridging across our region will flatten quickly as an upper trough across the Four Corners Region of the Country fills as it eject out into the Great Plains. This is where there are some discrepancies in the medium range progs as the GFS is quick to phase this Southwest U.S. trough with a very energetic longwave trough late Tuesday into Wednesday across the Plains. This solution would allow for more upper forcing across the Middle Red River Valley/Lower Miss Valley which in turn would allow for more moisture return ahead of a strong cold front, resulting in widespread rain chances late Wed into early Thu of next week. Last night's ECMWF run was much more conservative with not only the filling upper trough across the Southwest U.S. but never really phased this trough with the upstream trough coming out of the Intermountain West by the middle of next week. Well, the 12z ECMWF has come full circle now, looking suprisingly similar to the more aggressively phased GFS and therefore, brings much higher rain chances into our region Wed into Thu of next week. NBM guidance is weighted much more heavily to the more conservative 00z ECMWF and will therefore follow its lead for now seeing that these rain chances are still in Days 6 and 7 of the forecast. Consistency is the key to confidence and until we see that in the medium range, chance pops next Wed into Thu is the best route to take. Thanks for the coordination JAN...prelims to follow...13 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1213 PM CDT Fri Oct 7 2022 For the 07/18Z TAF update, a weak frontal boundary proceeding southward will not change much other than wind speed and direction (light N to NE surface winds return to near 10 kts in speed) across the airspace by 08/10Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through the period with more high cloud cover drifting in from the west. /16/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 60 80 57 84 / 0 0 0 0 MLU 58 78 52 82 / 0 0 0 0 DEQ 53 76 50 83 / 0 10 0 0 TXK 57 77 54 82 / 0 0 0 0 ELD 52 75 49 80 / 0 0 0 0 TYR 60 82 58 85 / 0 0 0 0 GGG 58 81 55 84 / 0 0 0 0 LFK 62 86 57 87 / 0 0 0 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....13 AVIATION...16