958 FXUS61 KBGM 071916 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 316 PM EDT Fri Oct 7 2022 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will move east of the area tonight. However, some clouds and light showers look to linger into Saturday. High pressure builds into the region early next week before a cold front comes through toward the end of next week with some shower chances. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... A cold front will continue to move east of the region tonight. Behind the front, northwest flow will continue to advect some moisture off of Lake Ontario into central New York. As a result, clouds will remain with a few light rain showers as well. Even though temperatures fall into the mid and upper 30's for some spots clouds and northwest winds should prevent frost. Conditions should clear out gradually in NE PA tonight. On Saturday, residual lake effect clouds will still be slow to totally clear out but should gradually do so by the afternoon with high pressure building into the area. A few 20 mph northwest wind gusts can not be ruled out through Saturday after reviewing model soundings. A little higher frost concern Saturday night with clearer skies and slightly lighter winds compared to tonight. Low temperatures should end up around 40 in the Finger Lakes with mid and upper 30's elsewhere. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 315 pm update... An upper level trough will persist through the short term with cool NW flow. 850 mb temperatures will be right around 0C so there will be enough of a temperature difference between the Great Lakes water temperature and 850 for some weak lake induced instability. Chances of precipitation were kept across the Finger Lakes region into western CNY Sunday into Monday. A 500 mb shortwave passes through the region late Sunday night into Monday that may enhance the lake effect precipitation for a few hours but timing is still uncertain. Once that shortwave is through later in the day on Monday into monday night, the low level flow becomes more westerly with warmer air starting to advect in and conditions become unfavorable for lake effect precipitation. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... 315 pm update... The long term is looking mostly dry with temperatures around to just above average. Towards the end of the week into next weekend, precipitation chances return as a potent upper level trough digs into the upper Mid west. Ensembles and deterministic models have trended towards a more negatively tilted trough that is moving slower east. Another factor in the set up will be where the remnants of tropical storm Julia goes. With more models trending towards the Gulf of Mexico, there is a chance that the deeper tropical moisture could be picked up with higher PWATs advecting in ahead of the trough. QPF amounts vary greatly still with the uncertainty but some ensemble members do show an inch plus of precipitation late next week into the weekend and will be monitored. && .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... One period of MVFR to IFR clouds will gradually scatter out by mid afternoon. However, ceilings should reform at all sites but KAVP tonight. Indications are for these ceilings could be around the 3,000 foot threshold. The highest chances for MVFR ceilings overnight are at KITH and KBGM with lower chances at other sites. The fog possibility for KELM around sunrise has decreased some based on some expected wind tonight. However, maintained a TEMPO with some uncertainty still present. Any ceilings should lift and scatter by late morning Saturday. Fairly steady northwest winds around 10 knots with a few 20 knot gusts throughout the TAF period. Outlook... Saturday night through Wednesday...Mainly VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BJG NEAR TERM...MWG SHORT TERM...AJG LONG TERM...AJG/TAC AVIATION...BJG