164 FXUS61 KBGM 071848 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 248 PM EDT Fri Oct 7 2022 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will move east of the area tonight. However, some clouds and light showers look to linger into Saturday. High pressure builds into the region early next week before a cold front comes through toward the end of next week with some shower chances. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... A cold front will continue to move east of the region tonight. Behind the front, northwest flow will continue to advect some moisture off of Lake Ontario into central New York. As a result, clouds will remain with a few light rain showers as well. Even though temperatures fall into the mid and upper 30's for some spots clouds and northwest winds should prevent frost. Conditions should clear out gradually in NE PA tonight. On Saturday, residual lake effect clouds will still be slow to totally clear out but should gradually do so by the afternoon with high pressure building into the area. A few 20 mph northwest wind gusts can not be ruled out through Saturday after reviewing model soundings. A little higher frost concern Saturday night with clearer skies and slightly lighter winds compared to tonight. Low temperatures should end up around 40 in the Finger Lakes with mid and upper 30's elsewhere. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 350 am update... Saturday night into Sunday a southwest flow will keep most of the lake effect showers north of our area. Northern Oneida may get a few showers but that is all. Saturday night could be the coldest night this week. Lows mostly mid and upper 30s. A southwest wind at 5 to 10 mph could keep the frost from forming. Sunday will be warmer than Saturday with high from the mid 50s to lower 60s. Late Sunday into Sunday night low level winds shift to northwest bringing in colder air and a weak cold front. Some showers are possible mostly in central NY that will last into Monday morning. There will some synoptic forcing combined with lake enhancement as 850mb temperatures fall to around 0C. Sunday night low temperatures will be from the mid 30s to the lower 40s. Frost is possible with light winds. Monday highs will be from the mid 50s to the lower 60s again but a degree or two warmer than Sunday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... 350 am update... Overall, a rather quiet period of weather is expected during this period with high pressure in control into Wednesday. The models then have a strong cold front moving through the area Thursday or Thursday night with rain. Moisture will be pulled northeast into our area from the Gulf of Mexico. This is ahead of a large upper level trough over the western Great Lakes. With high pressure to our south over the middle Atlantic states Monday to Wednesday there will be a slow warming trend. Highs peak in the 60s Wednesday but this could continue into Thursday with a slower frontal passage. Lows Monday night from the mid 30s to the lower 40s rise into the upper 40s and lower 50s Wednesday night. Monday night could again have some patchy frost. && .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... One period of MVFR to IFR clouds will gradually scatter out by mid afternoon. However, ceilings should reform at all sites but KAVP tonight. Indications are for these ceilings could be around the 3,000 foot threshold. The highest chances for MVFR ceilings overnight are at KITH and KBGM with lower chances at other sites. The fog possibility for KELM around sunrise has decreased some based on some expected wind tonight. However, maintained a TEMPO with some uncertainty still present. Any ceilings should lift and scatter by late morning Saturday. Fairly steady northwest winds around 10 knots with a few 20 knot gusts throughout the TAF period. Outlook... Saturday night through Wednesday...Mainly VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MWG NEAR TERM...MWG SHORT TERM...TAC LONG TERM...TAC AVIATION...BJG