684 FXUS66 KOTX 071758 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 1058 AM PDT Fri Oct 7 2022 .SYNOPSIS.... High pressure will continue to bring warm and dry weather through the weekend. Temperatures each afternoon will climb 10 to 15 degrees above the seasonal normals. This pattern will likely continue through Monday followed by cooler temperatures and a slight chance of showers on Tuesday. The dry weather pattern is expected to continue through next week. && .DISCUSSION... Today through Sunday: Strong high pressure will remain over the region through the weekend promoting above normal warmth, dry conditions, and generally light winds. The ridge axis which was directly over Eastern WA on Thursday will begin a subtle drift toward the west over the next 48 hours. 500mb heights will lower a decameter or two and the midlevel circulation noted this morning off Vancouver Island will drop into the region from the northwest. This feature will likely be evident via the mid and high level water vapor channels but have minor influences to sensible weather at the surface other than filtering out sunshine from additional high clouds. Winds will remain light from the east and northeast with local breezes to 15 mph across the Columbia Basin and at times, channeling southward through the Okanogan Valley and Purcell Trench. Winds across the mountain and mountain valleys will be light and terrain driven. Smoke will have a difficult time scrubbing out of the Cascade valleys over the next few days leading to areas of unhealthy air near and downstream of the White River and Minnow Ridge wildfires. Most folks across the Inland Northwest will experience haze and the scent of wildfires given the strengthening morning inversions of early October and poor afternoon mixing under this stable weather pattern. High temperatures will continue to warm into the 70s to lower 80s while lows cool in the 40s and 50s and pockets of upper 30s sprinkled throughout the northern mountain valleys. /sb Monday through Friday: Model guidance shows the ridge of high pressure that has been sitting over us gradually breaking down starting Monday as a low moving south from Alaska pushes it out of our region. The latest runs have the center of this low staying farther north of us than in previous runs, so while the system will still send a weak cold front through, it likely won't bring much precip for the Inland Northwest. The chance for showers will be highest over the Northern Mountains and throughout the Idaho Panhandle, though any accumulation will be underwhelming - not more than a couple hundredths of an inch. Winds will strengthen as the cold front passes, bringing sustained winds in the teens and gusts in the mid 20 MPH range for many areas. Higher wind speeds could shoo smoke out of the Cascade valleys, relieving this part of the state from the extremely poor air quality that has persisted for the past week. The downside is if temperatures remain warm enough, an increase in wind could make it easier for fires to spread. With the majority of models predicting a weaker cold front, temperatures are only expected to drop a few degrees, leaving afternoon temperatures in the high 60s and low 70s by Tuesday. Early morning temperatures will be in the upper 30s to low 40s Tuesday through Saturday across much of the region with some of the Northern Valleys dropping below freezing. Heading toward the end of next week, another ridge will move in behind the low, slowly warming our afternoon temperatures back up into the low to mid 70s by Friday. While shortening daylight hours will make it difficult for temperatures to climb too high, we'll still be several degrees above the seasonal normal. /Fewkes && .AVIATION... 18Z TAFS: VFR conditions will prevail at all forecast sites with exception of KEAT which will occasionally be impacted by smoke from the White River/Minnow Ridge fires. Diurnal trends are for southeast winds around mid to late afternoon to bring improved visibility with VFR conditions. Drainage winds during the overnight hours will bring smoke back into KEAT with potential for MVFR conditions. JW && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Spokane 77 46 76 46 77 46 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Coeur d'Alene 76 46 75 44 75 44 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pullman 77 47 76 43 75 42 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 79 51 78 51 78 50 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Colville 80 39 79 39 78 37 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Sandpoint 74 45 74 40 72 41 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Kellogg 76 54 75 49 74 50 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Moses Lake 83 48 82 45 80 45 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 79 52 78 55 80 54 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 79 53 78 49 80 47 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. WA...None. && $$