488 FXUS61 KOKX 071743 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 143 PM EDT Fri Oct 7 2022 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front pushes through late today, followed by gradually building high pressure from the west and southwest for the weekend. High pressure builds in for Monday and Tuesday, then moves off shore Wednesday. A cold front moves into the region Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Forecast on track into this afternoon. The only change was to include a slight chance of showers late afternoon/early evening across the NW interior. CAMs continue to indicate some development as the front passes through. If anything develops, it will be light and brief. Have kept PoPs minimal further east for now. A southwest flow preceding a cold front ushers in above normal temps across the area today, with most max temps reaching the lower and middle 70s. The cold front will arrive late in the afternoon and early evening, towards 21-23z or so for the city. Some mid level clouds will work in from the west and southwest this evening. A shortwave begins to approach from the west, along with some upper level jet dynamics with a 120 kt jet moving in later at night. Have introduced slight chance and low end chance PoPs for most of the area, the exception is for far NW areas where the current thinking has minimal PoPs. A few hundredths of an inch of rain is possible later tonight and into early Saturday and mainly for the eastern half of the area as a shortwave embedded in the long wave trough slides through. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Clouds should quickly exit from west to east on Saturday as the weak wave of low pressure along the cold front gets offshore. A few showers are possible very early out east, but clearing skies should work in by the late morning. Another embedded shortwave slides through during the afternoon but will not have any moisture to work with. Look for quick clearing Saturday morning with some strat-cu possible into the afternoon with a bit of a cold pool remaining aloft. The big chance will be the turn to more fall like temperatures with afternoon maxes struggling to get to 60, and likely remaining in the upper half of the 50s for a good portion of the area. A northwest breeze will be noticeable at times keeping it rather fall like. By Saturday night the breeze diminishes with high pressure settling in enough to allow the winds lighten. With mainly clear skies temperatures will drop later at night across the rural locations. This may allow some patchy frost to form in far northern areas. At this time temperatures aren't expect to cool enough to allow for widespread frost. Lows will be mainly in the upper 30s well inland, to the 40s along the immediate coast. Thus, it appears Saturday night will be the coolest night across much of the area so far this fall. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A large scale upper trough will remain across eastern Canada and the eastern United States Sunday night into Monday, and then move to the east as an upper ridge builds to the west. The ridge moves through Tuesday and Tuesday night as a more amplified upper rough approaches through Thursday. A weak cold front will be passing well to the north and east of the region Sunday night, and little moisture will be accompanying the passage. High pressure builds in Monday and Tuesday. A stronger cold front will be approaching for Thursday with a chance of showers. There is some instability and CAPE and an isolated thunderstorm can not be ruled out. However, the timing of the front is uncertain. Used the NBM guidance for temperatures and precipitation probabilities through the extended forecast. Temperatures will be slightly below normal Sunday night in the wake of a cold front, then return to near seasonal normals for the early portion of the week, and then above normal mid week ahead of the strong cold front. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Low pressure well to the north will bring a cold front through the terminals early this evening. High pressure builds in from the west tonight. VFR. There is a low chance of light rain late tonight along the coast (possibly KJFK and KBDR but mainly KISP and KGON) with no impacts to flight categories expected. Light SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts 15-20kt developing ahead of the cold front this afternoon. Gusts continue in the NW flow following the cold frontal passage late afternoon/early evening. A few gusts may reach just over 20 kt. Gusts expected to end after 03Z Saturday but may be off by an hour or two. Gusts may be more occasional this afternoon. Northwest flow continue late this evening and overnight. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... No unscheduled amendments expected. Gusts may be more occasional late this afternoon into this evening. Timing of the cold front passage this evening may be off +/- an hour. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... .Saturday...VFR. NW winds G15-20kt. .Sunday...VFR. W winds G15-20kt. .Monday through Wednesday...VFR. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... W-SW this afternoon precedes an approaching cold front. Just ahead of the front by late in the afternoon gusts out on the eastern ocean may approach 20 kts, but sub SCA conditions should prevail through the evening. By tonight out on the ocean and the eastern non-ocean waters, gusts potentially approach 20 kts with perhaps a few pockets of marginal small craft conditions on a NW wind. By Saturday ocean seas should settle in around 3 ft with NW winds gusting to 15 to 20 kt at times. Another period of marginal small craft conditions is more likely towards Sunday afternoon, with conditions subsiding late Sunday night as the pressure gradient lightens. Sub small craft conditions continue into Monday and Tuesday as high pressure dominates. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrological impacts are anticipated through the forecast period. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JE/MET NEAR TERM...JE/DS SHORT TERM...JE LONG TERM...MET AVIATION...MW MARINE...JE/MET HYDROLOGY...JE/MET