169 FXUS63 KFGF 071726 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1226 PM CDT Fri Oct 7 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 1224 PM CDT Fri Oct 7 2022 Lake effect clouds continue to diminish. Clear skies are in store for us the rest of the day with temperatures hovering potentially close to 50, although it will be a tough feat. Winds will begin to increase slightly as the surface high continues its march. UPDATE Issued at 935 AM CDT Fri Oct 7 2022 The 1036 surface high continues to press further south, currently centered in the southern valley/NE South Dakota. A thick stratus deck remains over the far eastern tier of counties with satellite observations indicating some weak lake effect convection inducing some isolated flurries. Impacts are expected to remain low from these flurries as air temperature continues to slowly increase with increasing warm air advection this afternoon. UPDATE Issued at 701 AM CDT Fri Oct 7 2022 High pressure remains over Devils Lake region. Underneath high widespread lows 15 to 20. Low to mid 20s into the RRV. Clouds holding and only every so slowly clearing south/southeast thru MN....with clearing line Baudette to west of Detroit lakes to near Fergus Falls. Secondary cloud area that was over NE ND dropping south and now into Fargo. Cloudy areas overnight saw temps stay above freezing. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday) Issued at 252 AM CDT Fri Oct 7 2022 High pressure at 07z over Devils Lake. Skies clear over E ND with light winds and radiational cooling allowing temps to drop into the 20s and a few teens. The clouds over the eastern fcst area have been slowly clearing from the north with west edge of clouds at 730z from Warroad to west of Mahnomen to Wahpeton. In the cloud areas temps were above 32F. No evidence of any precipitation in the cloud area so did remove the very low pops we had going downstream of Lake of the Woods thru Fri AM. Clouds will continue to gradually clear this morning and for the rest of the area expect a sunny day with winds turning more westerly this aftn with speeds in the 5 to 15 mph range, though locally 20 mph in the Devils Lake basin. Highs today in the mid 40s to around 50. High pressure to our southeast tonight so looks to be not as cool except for west central MN where it will be clear and winds lightest and they will likely drop colder early Saturday morning than they will be this morning with lows by Sat AM around 32 Fergus Falls/Wadena areas. Short wave dropping south-southeast across Manitoba into NW Minnesota Saturday will bring some high/mid clouds with it spreading north to south. Look for warmer temps with highs into the 60s most areas along with a west wind 10 to 15 mph. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 252 AM CDT Fri Oct 7 2022 Minimal impacts expected in the extended time frame with seasonal conditions anticipated as model consensus and guidance remains in good agreement with the overall synoptic pattern across North America. Will see the ridging in the west and trough in the east persist with northwest flow aloft across the region with short wave passage expected Saturday night into Sunday morning and then again on Tuesday night into Wednesday. The first wave remains the weaker one with just a 15 to 25 percent chance of a shower across the northern valley and NW MN with minimal cold advection. The second wave is progged to be much stronger with a larger footprint with the best moisture and lift coming together the farther east you are. Will maintain the 15 to 25 percent chance with the potential for that to increase if the wave slows down and allows moisture return to occur further west. Temps for the period will be near normal with lows in the 30s and 40s with most areas and nights above freezing. Highs will be a bit more variable as temps start out around 60 on Sunday then warm to mid 60s Monday and into the low and mid 70s for Tuesday before falling into the 50s for Wednesday and Thursday. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon) Issued at 1224 PM CDT Fri Oct 7 2022 No significant aviation impacts are expected. Cigs will continue to improve at BJI, with all other TAF sites at VFR. VFR cigs will prevail for the TAF period. Winds will slightly increase from the west at about 6-10 knots at best. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Perroux SHORT TERM...Riddle LONG TERM...JK AVIATION...Perroux