713 FXUS64 KSHV 071716 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1216 PM CDT Fri Oct 7 2022 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1031 AM CDT Fri Oct 7 2022 As of 10:30 AM CDT, temperatures remain in the low-to-mid 70s across the Ark-La-Tex with high clouds drifting in from the west as a trough over the Gulf of California funnels southwesterly flow aloft. Temperatures will steadily warm up to maximums in the upper 80s (with lower 90s possible) on an otherwise dry day. With weather and observed trends continuing as anticipated, forecast grid adjustments are not necessary at this time. /16/ && .SHORT TERM... (Friday through Saturday) Issued at 152 AM CDT Fri Oct 7 2022 Cry Havoc, and let slip the temperatures of fall! For starters, I don't believe that Shakespeare quote to be entirely accurate. Beyond that, it's not entirely accurate from a meteorological sense either. While we can expect a swing in temperatures towards an autumn feel, it's really only a feel of the seasonal kind. A trough will continue to dig through the Midwest at the start of this short-term, which will push a pretty powerful cold front south with it. The region won't really begin to feel the effects of this front until Saturday, with afternoon highs getting down into the mid-70s to mid-80s. Until then, temperatures under the dry airmass will continue to run above average. Highs today will range in the upper-80s to low-90s, with lows tonight ranging in the low-50s to low-60s. Rain chances....well...we won't talk about those. Well, I will, but you won't like what I have to say. While this is a very beefy cold front expected to move through into the weekend, the airmass situated over the region is bone dry. This will once again result in a dry frontal passage, with rain chances remaining limited well into the long-term. /44/ && .LONG TERM... (Saturday Night through Friday) Issued at 152 AM CDT Fri Oct 7 2022 Post FROPA continues through the weekend as the ridge axis settles in and works to the south and east. The 10 degree high temperature spread forecasted for Saturday will return back to low to mid 80s on Sunday as return flow settles in late Sunday night into Monday morning with sfc winds becoming southeasterly. The return to southerly sfc flow will aid in an increase in temperatures to start the new week as mid to upper 80s appear likely in this forecast package. Best chances for low 90s look to be to the southwest, closer to Lufkin (KLFK). As the ridge axis continues to work east and depart the Delmarva Peninsula, into the Atlantic between 15-18z Tuesday, southeasterly winds will prevail locally ahead of an expected frontal passage highlighted in the global guidance for Thursday morning/afternoon. Timing of the frontal passage, along with FROPA associated POPs, will dictate just how warm high temperatures get Thursday. For now Wednesday should represent peak warming ahead of the front. Post frontal temperature advection will allow for another return to seasonal highs near the end of this forecast cycle. Models continue to highlight healthy moisture advection northward from the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) Wednesday ahead of the arrival of the frontal boundary some time between 12-15z Thursday. Increased PWAT values nearing 1.50" across central LA, mixed with convergent flow ahead of the front will help support some minor POPs Wednesday afternoon in the far SE corner of the CWA, with more widespread POP chances Thursday as the front moves in and PWAT values advance further north. While the trend of frontal associated POPs continue to appear in the guidance, forcing associated with the front looks to decay on approach to the northern fringe of the CWA, but still enough to support the chance for showers Thursday. For now, keeping the NBM long term rain chances in this forecast cycle. Following the passing front, the associated ridge axis behind the front sets up across central Arkansas for the end of the forecast period, drying us out once more. /53/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1213 PM CDT Fri Oct 7 2022 For the 07/18Z TAF update, a weak frontal boundary proceeding southward will not change much other than wind speed and direction (light N to NE surface winds return to near 10 kts in speed) across the airspace by 08/10Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through the period with more high cloud cover drifting in from the west. /16/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 61 79 57 82 / 0 0 0 0 MLU 58 77 51 80 / 0 0 0 0 DEQ 53 75 51 82 / 10 0 0 0 TXK 57 76 54 80 / 0 0 0 0 ELD 52 74 49 78 / 0 0 0 0 TYR 61 81 58 85 / 0 0 0 0 GGG 58 80 56 82 / 0 0 0 0 LFK 64 86 58 85 / 0 0 0 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....53 AVIATION...16