533 FXUS64 KHUN 071642 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 1142 AM CDT Fri Oct 7 2022 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Rest of Today) Issued at 930 AM CDT Fri Oct 7 2022 A cold front continues to move southward across this morning, with high clouds streaming through the area. Given the dry airmass in place, high clouds and northerly flow will be the only change to our sensible weather pattern as the front continues to move southeast and out of the area. Frontal passage should clear the TN Valley by the late morning/early afternoon hours and high pressure will being to build into the region in its wake. Despite the cold front and cloud cover, temps have already risen into the mid to upper 60s, so afternoon highs should have no problem rising into the lower 80s. No major changes were made to the forecast package with this update. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Monday) Issued at 325 AM CDT Fri Oct 7 2022 The true push of cooler air will not arrive until tonight as another shortwave trough pivots across the Ohio Valley and Central Appalachians, sending another front through the area by early Saturday morning. This will bring in more of the "classic" autumn weather in the form of cooler temperatures -- with highs struggling to climb above the 70 degree mark on Saturday (5-10 degrees below normal for early October). As this cooler, drier air mass settles in Saturday night, we'll have a very good setup for radiational cooling given the clear sky. Temperatures will drop off to the lowest readings of the autumn season so far, potentially bottoming out in the mid 30s across southern middle Tennessee and the upper 30s to lower 40s elsewhere. A few frost pockets may develop in sheltered valleys where winds can decouple late Saturday night into early Sunday morning, and its possible a Frost Advisory may be warranted for parts of our area (mainly our Tennessee zones) Saturday night. With high pressure in control of the weather, a warm up will take place Sunday and Monday, with highs returning to the mid to upper 70s underneath sunny skies. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Thursday) Issued at 325 AM CDT Fri Oct 7 2022 The upper ridge will amplify on Tuesday into Wednesday as winds veer to the south, allowing for the warmest temperatures of the upcoming week as highs will return to the low to mid 80s. These southerly winds will also help to advect (at least modestly) some Gulf moisture back into the area. This will occur just ahead of deepening upper trough that will pivot from the northern Plains into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, that will send a stronger cold front into the area late Wednesday night into Thursday. Strong lift from the front and the low pressure system combined with the ample moisture in place will generate scattered showers and a few thunderstorms during this window. This welcome rain will be the first measurable precipitation in over two weeks here in the Tennessee Valley -- and the only opportunity for rainfall in the next week. High pressure will build in quickly in its wake, resulting in a dry and cool end to next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1142 AM CDT Fri Oct 7 2022 VFR conds are currently observed at the terminals, featuring sct Ci clouds and a light NNW wind that should increase to 10G18 knots as the mixing layer deepens ahead of an approaching cold front. Although boundary layer moisture appears sufficient to support a few high-based Cu as this occurs, rapid drying of the low-levels is expected this evening as the front progresses southward, with high-lvl clouds expected to be a bit slower to clear the region early Saturday morning. A moderate NNE flow of 5-10 knots will persist for the second half of the TAF period, and this along with dry air advection will inhibit development of BR/FG during the early morning hours. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...73 SHORT TERM...AMP LONG TERM...AMP AVIATION...70/DD