185 FXUS62 KTAE 071447 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 1047 AM EDT Fri Oct 7 2022 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 1044 AM EDT Fri Oct 7 2022 A broad upper trough accompanied by a surface high will continue to advect drier air into the region today. Model guidance has shown drier mid-levels than were previously forecasted, so afternoon dewpoints have been lowered to account for the stronger mixing that is expected. Aside from this, seasonal temperatures and clear skies are expected throughout the remainder of the afternoon. && .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 221 AM EDT Fri Oct 7 2022 Surface high pressure across the Dakotas is forecast to eject equatorward into the central plains by tonight. With high pressure remaining quasi-stationary at the surface combined with broad upper level troughing forecast to be re-enforced across the eastern conus today through tonight, fair weather is expected to continue. The one caveat with surface high pressure over the region is that subsidence aloft will be present leading to a warm day with above average highs in the upper 80s forecast areawide. Temperatures overnight will still be cool, but are forecast to be slightly warmer than previous nights with lows in the upper 50s to low 60s areawide. The biggest concern through the near term period will be fire weather given the continued warm and dry conditions. && .SHORT AND LONG TERM... (Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 221 AM EDT Fri Oct 7 2022 A dry cold front will move across the area Saturday with little fanfare. Slightly cooler temperatures and a resurgence of northerly winds can be expected for the rest of the weekend. Dry conditions will stretch into early next week as surface high pressure initially builds in behind the front from the Midwest then slides towards the east coast Tue-Wed. Surface flow will turn easterly beginning Tue which will help advect in moisture from the Atlantic. In concert with this, some tropical moisture will be advected in from now TD 13 as it crosses central America ahead of a deepening trough through the Rockies. This trough appears to support a surface cold front mid to late week. Timing/consistency differences between the GFS/ECMWF and ensembles makes it hard to nail down timing and strength of that front. If we do indeed get this setup of increased moisture and the surface front, this will be the best chance of rain the area has seen in a few weeks. Temperatures will remain above climo averages through this period. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 631 AM EDT Fri Oct 7 2022 MVFR visibilities have developed at VLD this morning, but are will likely lift to VFR by 13 UTC this morning. VFR conditions will prevail for the remainder of the TAF period at all terminals. Light northerly winds at around 5 knots can be expected today at all terminals. && .MARINE... Issued at 221 AM EDT Fri Oct 7 2022 Favorable marine conditions are expected through tonight. A cold front will move through Saturday bringing increasing north and northeast winds to area waters with cautionary levels possible. From Sunday onwards, a steady northeast and easterly flow will develop with cautionary conditions likely through much of next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 221 AM EDT Fri Oct 7 2022 The warm and dry conditions are expected to continue for the region through the middle to end of next week. This will lead to the continuation of elevated fire weather conditions through this period. Minimum humidity values today will drop into the low to mid 20s across the tri-state region, with higher values in the upper 30s expected along coastal areas. A slight rebound of minimum RH values in the afternoon on Saturday into the low 30s across the tri-state region is expected; however, by Sunday, lower RH values are forecast across the area once again. Winds are expected to remain light out of the north at around 5 on Friday, but are forecast to increase to around 5 to 10 mph on Saturday with the passage of a dry cold front. With the increase in winds on Saturday, dispersions will similarly increase areawide leading to elevated fire danger especially as drier air noses into the region behind the front. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 221 AM EDT Fri Oct 7 2022 No appreciable rainfall is expected over the next week. Therefore, there are no hydrology concerns at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 87 61 87 58 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 86 64 86 59 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 88 60 84 52 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 87 59 85 52 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 87 58 87 57 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 87 58 88 59 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 83 64 85 62 / 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Bunker SHORT TERM...Scholl LONG TERM....Scholl AVIATION...Bunker MARINE...Scholl FIRE WEATHER...Bunker HYDROLOGY...Scholl