336 FXUS61 KBGM 071431 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 1031 AM EDT Fri Oct 7 2022 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will move through the area today, which will bring scattered rain showers. Behind this cold front, much cooler weather is expected to persist through the weekend. While the weekend will be dry for most of the region, a few lake effect rain showers will be possible along and north of the New York Thruway Corridor. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Only minor changes with the mid-morning update. Previous discussion below. 345 AM Update: A cold front will move into the region from the west later this morning into the afternoon. This will bring another batch of scattered rain showers to the region, especially across Central NY. Ahead of this front, some sunshine is expected, especially across much of Northeast PA to the Catskills. By this afternoon, a northwesterly flow will develop, allowing for lake effect rain showers to develop across the Finger Lakes region. High temperatures today will vary depending on location. Areas west of I-81 will likely see highs mainly in the 50s with the cold front already east of those areas by the time of peak heating. Areas east of I-81 will generally see highs in the upper 50s to upper 60s, with some 70 degree readings not out of the question for the Poconos-Catskills. Following the cold front passage, 850mb temperatures will fall to around -5C as a northwest flow develops. This will allow for continued lake effect rain showers and clouds across parts of Central NY tonight. A few wet snowflakes may mix in across the higher elevations of Central NY, although no accumulation is expected. Lows tonight are expected to be in the lower 30s to near 40. A few isolated locations across far northern Oneida County may touch the freezing mark, but coverage and confidence is not high enough for freeze headlines at this time. Frost appears unlikely due to the cloud cover and still somewhat breezy winds. High pressure moves into the region on Saturday, which will mostly bring an end to any lake effect showers and result in mostly sunny skies. Still a slight chance for some lingering light lake effect rain showers though across northern Oneida County as the flow turns more westerly. With a chilly airmass in place, high temperatures will only be in the upper 40s to mid 50s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... 350 am update... Saturday night into Sunday a southwest flow will keep most of the lake effect showers north of our area. Northern Oneida may get a few showers but that is all. Saturday night could be the coldest night this week. Lows mostly mid and upper 30s. A southwest wind at 5 to 10 mph could keep the frost from forming. Sunday will be warmer than Saturday with high from the mid 50s to lower 60s. Late Sunday into Sunday night low level winds shift to northwest bringing in colder air and a weak cold front. Some showers are possible mostly in central NY that will last into Monday morning. There will some synoptic forcing combined with lake enhancement as 850mb temperatures fall to around 0C. Sunday night low temperatures will be from the mid 30s to the lower 40s. Frost is possible with light winds. Monday highs will be from the mid 50s to the lower 60s again but a degree or two warmer than Sunday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... 350 am update... Overall, a rather quiet period of weather is expected during this period with high pressure in control into Wednesday. The models then have a strong cold front moving through the area Thursday or Thursday night with rain. Moisture will be pulled northeast into our area from the Gulf of Mexico. This is ahead of a large upper level trough over the western Great Lakes. With high pressure to our south over the middle Atlantic states Monday to Wednesday there will be a slow warming trend. Highs peak in the 60s Wednesday but this could continue into Thursday with a slower frontal passage. Lows Monday night from the mid 30s to the lower 40s rise into the upper 40s and lower 50s Wednesday night. Monday night could again have some patchy frost. && .AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As a cold front moves through the region, MVFR to Fuel Alternate ceiling restrictions are expected later this morning into the afternoon, followed by a return to VFR conditions for most terminals. Scattered rain showers will accompany these ceiling restrictions as well. Additional MVFR ceiling restrictions are possible this evening/tonight at the Central NY terminals due to lake effect clouds and rain showers. Patchy fog cannot be ruled out at KELM late tonight/early Saturday morning, which may bring occasional IFR visby restrictions. Following the passage of the cold front, westerly winds will pick up, becoming sustained at around 10 kts with gusts of 15 to 20 kts through this evening. Winds diminish a bit overnight. Outlook... Saturday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BJG NEAR TERM...BJG/MWG SHORT TERM...TAC LONG TERM...TAC AVIATION...BJG