445 FXUS64 KLCH 071425 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 925 AM CDT Fri Oct 7 2022 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 920 AM CDT Fri Oct 7 2022 Clear skies and light, variable winds ongoing across the region this morning. Expect increasing mid and high clouds to invade the region from west to east by this afternoon ahead of a dry cold front that will push through the region late tonight into tomorrow morning. No changes to the inherited forecast this morning. Jones && .SHORT TERM... (Today to Sunday Night) Issued at 323 AM CDT Fri Oct 7 2022 Outside of fog, we have a quiet start to the day with temperatures in the mid 50s to low 60s under clear skies. Winds are calm with dewpoints falling a few degrees below or matching air temps. Patchy to dense fog can be seen this morning across the coastal Counties of SETX, Calcasieu Parish, and Cameron Parish. Visibilities under a mile are noted, so please travel with caution early this morning. Fog will be quick to burn off after sunrise. There is an Air Quality Alert, from 7 AM to 7 PM CDT today for the Golden Triangle Counties. That will begin to clear out as the front starts to drop down into the area. Other than those things, nothing new and noteworthy to mention. The cold front will bring slightly cooler and drier air into the region, however no rain. We are pretty dry so the front will not have much in the way of moisture to work with. At the most we will see mid to upper level clouds shortly before frontal passage with clouds quick to clear out tomorrow morning to afternoon. The front will do little to the afternoon temps, however it will help in cooling us down more at night. Temps today (pre front) will be in the 90s, while this weekend (post front) they will be in the mid to upper 80s. Tonight's lows will be in the mid to upper 60s, with some low 70s along the immediate coast. That will be brought down to the mid to upper 50s after fropa. Stigger && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Friday) Issued at 323 AM CDT Fri Oct 7 2022 The upper air pattern Monday through Wednesday becomes more zonal with the cool surface high slowly sliding eastward. The easterly winds will gradually become southeast, gradually increasing the dewpoints and humidity across the area. Overnight lows a little higher in the mid 50s to lower 60s Tuesday morning, upper 50s to mid 60s Wednesday, and mid 60s to near 70 on Thursday morning. Highs in the mid to upper 80s Monday through Wednesday. Chances of showers and a few thunderstorms expected to return on Wednesday with increased moisture from the Gulf, 20-30% range north of I-10, and 30- 40% south of the interstate to the coast, and 40-50% across the coastal waters. By Thursday and Friday, a large longwave trough expected to dig southward across the Central and Eastern U.S. This will bring another cold front across the area late Thursday night. The approaching front and lingering Gulf moisture will keep chances of showers and thunderstorms around 30-40% during the day Thursday, with highs in the mid to upper 80s. Behind the front, cooler and drier air expected to return to the region on Friday. 08/DML && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 430 AM CDT Fri Oct 7 2022 Dense fog is currently impacting both KLCH & KBPT with LIFR visibilities under a mile reported in the METARS. Fog will begin to burn off after sunrise. From there, VFR conditions can be expected for all sites with mid to upper decks streaming across the region ahead of a cold front. No precipitation can be expected as a result of frontal passage. Otherwise expect winds to pick up out of the north at 4-10kts. && .MARINE... Issued at 323 AM CDT Fri Oct 7 2022 Easterly flow will continue as high pressure drops southward into the lower Mississippi Valley. Weakening high pressure over the region and a passing weak wave over the northwest Gulf of Mexico will result in more variable winds today and Friday. An offshore flow will redevelop by the weekend as another cold front sweeps through the coastal waters. Winds in wake of the front will be just below criteria for a SCY. From Sunday, winds will remain elevated out of the east for the remainder of the forecast period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 92 62 85 56 / 0 0 0 0 LCH 89 65 86 59 / 0 0 0 0 LFT 90 66 87 59 / 0 0 0 0 BPT 90 67 88 62 / 0 0 0 0 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...66 LONG TERM....08 AVIATION...87