418 FXUS62 KMFL 071111 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 711 AM EDT Fri Oct 7 2022 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 241 AM EDT Fri Oct 7 2022 An upper high measuring in around 592 decameters is centered just east of the Bahamas, allowing for prevailing west/southwesterly flow aloft. Meanwhile modest northeasterly winds prevail in the boundary layer, which has resulted in cooler and drier conditions as of recently. Overall, impacts remain limited today, with PoPs remaining below 10% for much of the region. The best chances for isolated showers will remain along the Atlantic waters and perhaps immediate coastline where low-level convergence is maximized. By tomorrow conditions will gradually deteriorate. This can be attributed to the development of an easterly wave, as this feature moves over the Florida Keys by tomorrow. The northern fringe of this wave should encompass portions of South Florida for Saturday, and will allow for a ribbon of enhanced moisture filter in over the region. As a result, scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday. The timing of convection may be dependent on how this feature evolves, though the generally easterly steering flow should limit overall impacts. The primary hazards to consider for Saturday are lightning and locally gusty winds. Heavy rainfall may lead to localized flooding for urban locations where rainfall redevelops or is slow to move. Temperatures remain seasonably cool through Saturday. Maximum temperatures in the mid 80s should be observed for most locations, while overnight minimum temperatures in the low to mid 70s can be expected. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 241 AM EDT Fri Oct 7 2022 The remainder of the weekend and early portions of next week will continue to be impacted by east/southeasterly flow, with a warm/moist airmass originating from tropical latitudes. This will continue to support chance PoPs (scattered to numerous coverage) through Sunday and early portions of next week. Model guidance suggests that PW indices may exceed 2.0 inches for portions of this period, which may support heavy rainfall capable of producing localized flooding for metro portions of South Florida. Overall, the mean easterly steering flow should favor convective development in the morning for the east coast, and afternoon/evening for the interior and western portions of South Florida. Towards the latter part of next week, a mid-latitude upper disturbance will eject southward, which may allow for cyclogenesis to develop over Mid-Atlantic portions of CONUS. ECMWF/GFS both show veering south/southeasterly low-level winds, with isentropic ascent encapsulating portions of the Florida peninsula. This setup can favor the development of organized showers and thunderstorms ahead of developing of a southeastward propagating cold front; however being that this feature is towards the end of the forecast period, much uncertainty remains for now regarding overall develop and related impacts. Maximum temperatures will range from the mid/upper 80s along the coastal metro regions, and upper 80s/lower 90s for much of the interior. Minimum temperatures should increase slightly into the mid/upper 70s across the region. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 709 AM EDT Fri Oct 7 2022 VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period with mainly dry conditions expected. Light NE winds this morning will increase to around 10kt this afternoon with potential gusts to about 15kt. && .MARINE... Issued at 241 AM EDT Fri Oct 7 2022 Northeasterly swell gradually diminishes today, however breezy winds out of the northeast remain intact. This should allow for choppy conditions for portions of the waters, with wave heights up to 4 or 5 feet for some parts of the Atlantic waters. For the Gulf, seas should remain below 3 feet. SCEC conditions may materialize this weekend as easterly flow increases in magnitude. && .BEACHES... Issued at 241 AM EDT Fri Oct 7 2022 With breezy northeasterly winds in place, there is a high risk for rip currents for the Atlantic beaches. Winds will gradually shift out of the east through the weekend and into early next week. This will allow the continuation for a high risk of rip currents along the east coast. The risk for minor coastal flooding will continue today and through the weekend, as onshore flow coincides with King tides. For the east coast, widespread minor tidal flooding will be possible. Locally moderate tidal flooding cannot be ruled out from Saturday through early portions of next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 87 74 87 77 / 10 20 30 30 West Kendall 87 71 87 74 / 10 20 30 30 Opa-Locka 87 73 86 76 / 10 20 30 30 Homestead 85 73 85 75 / 10 20 30 30 Fort Lauderdale 86 75 86 77 / 10 20 30 30 N Ft Lauderdale 85 74 85 76 / 10 20 30 30 Pembroke Pines 86 73 86 75 / 10 20 30 30 West Palm Beach 84 72 85 75 / 10 10 20 20 Boca Raton 86 74 87 75 / 10 20 30 30 Naples 87 68 87 71 / 0 0 10 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ168-172-173. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...SRB LONG TERM....SRB AVIATION...Rizzuto