013 FXUS61 KALY 071051 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 651 AM EDT Fri Oct 7 2022 .SYNOPSIS... With a fast moving upper level disturbance over the area, a few showers are expected early this morning, mainly for northern parts of the area. It will be mild to start the day with some breaks in the clouds, but a frontal boundary will be passing through the area this afternoon with a few more showers. Behind the front, cooler and breezy weather is expected. While the weekend will be dry for most of the region, some rain showers can't be ruled out over the Adirondacks. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 651 AM EDT...A strong upper level trough is situated over Ontario and western Quebec. A cold front associated with this feature is located from southern Canada across Lake Ontario, western NY and into western PA. Ahead of these features, a fast moving and subtle upper level disturbance is now exiting eastern New York and heading towards northern New England. A band of fast moving light rain showers associated with this disturbance has been impacting the Lake George Saratoga Region and parts of the Capital Region over the last few hours. Based on radar movement and CAMs, the showers will be lifting to the east to northeast through daybreak and heading northeast across Vermont and towards New Hampshire for the morning hours. Rainfall amounts have generally be light (about a tenth or two) with locally up to around a third of an inch (based on NYS mesonet obs and MRMS estimates). Most of the area has been fairly cloudy overnight with the showers, but some breaks are now occurring behind the departing showers for the western Adirondacks, western Mohawk Valley, and southern areas (Catskills, Mid Hudson Valley and NW CT). These breaks in the clouds will continue to spread northeast over the next few hours. After sunrise, there will be a break in the rain as the first disturbance exits off into New England and we will still be ahead of the approaching boundary to the west. There should be enough breaks in the clouds for a partly to mostly sunny morning, especially for southern areas. However, the front to the west will be quickly approaching for the late morning into the afternoon hours and will be passing through the area from west to east. Ahead of the front, temps should warm quickly after the mild start to the day. With enough sun, valley areas will probably reach the mid 60s to mid 70s, with cooler temps across the high terrain, thanks to 850 hpa temps around +10 C. In addition, far western areas will be a little cooler, as the front will be crossing there earlier in the day, with only 50s in the Adirondacks. Although moisture will be somewhat limited, some scattered showers are expected ahead of the front. Best chance for showers today will again be across northern areas. 00z SPC HREF shows a little bit of instability possible across The Lake George area, Slate Valley of Washington County and into southern VT, with mean MUCAPE values around 100-300 J/kg. Will include a slight chc for thunder in case there are a few rumbles during the early afternoon hours. Any shower or t-storm looks brief in duration and light in intensity. Behind the front, winds will be switching to the west to northwest and start to become gusty. Some gusts up to 25 mph are possible behind the front as the cooler and drier air quickly starts working into the area. Temps may even start to fall by later this afternoon as the colder air mass starts heading into the area. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Behind the surface boundary, the upper level trough will be moving across the region for tonight. Despite the cyclonic flow, there probably won't be too many additional showers are moisture is lacking. There could be a few lake effect rain showers, although the expected flow should keep most of these over central NY. Still, the lake moisture and upslope flow may allow for some more clouds across the Adirondacks and Catskills, with mostly cloudy skies in those areas overnight. Otherwise, it will continue to be breezy at times with the northwest wind and falling temps. Overnight lows will be in the upper 30s to low 40s in valley areas. However, high terrain areas will range from the upper 20s in the Adirondacks to the mid 30s in other hills and mountains. The air mass coming in will be rather dry, so the combination of the light breeze and dry air should help prevent much frost from forming. On Saturday, large upper trough will continue to be located over the Northeast with fairly cool temps aloft. 850 hpa temps will only be 0 to -3 C and daytime temps will range from the mid 40s in the mountains to the mid 50s in valley areas. High terrain areas (especially western parts of the region) will continue to see a decent amount of cloud cover thanks to the cyclonic flow picking up some lake moisture. Elsewhere, skies will be partly to mostly sunny, with the most sun in southeastern areas where downsloping will aid in allowing for more sunshine. Northwest winds will still be a little on the breezy side, so it will feel a little chilly outside, especially compared to few mild days we had towards the end of the week. A chilly night is expected for Saturday night, although it won't be ideal radiational cooling, as high pressure will remain off to the south over the mid-Atlantic States. Winds will become light, but may not become completely calm. In addition, skies will continue to have some passing stratocu clouds, especially for northern and western areas. As another disturbance over Ontario rotates around within the main trough, the flow will align for some lake effect rain showers. These may impact parts of the western Adirondacks overnight. Elsewhere, it should stay fairly dry with temps falling into the mid to upper 30s across the entire area. Some patchy frost is possible across the higher terrain if winds lighten up enough. On Sunday, upper level disturbance will be passing by to the north. The best dynamics will be north of the region and moisture is fairly limited, but a few showers (aided by lake effect) are possible across the Adirondacks. Elsewhere, it should continue to be dry on Sunday. Sky cover will vary from mostly cloudy across northern areas to mostly sunny in the south. Temps will also vary, with only 40s to low 50s in northern areas, while the rest of the area will be ranging from the mid 50s to low 60s. A similar pattern will continue into Sunday night. Behind the departing disturbance, westerly flow over the eastern Great Lakes will allow for a few light passing rain showers across the western Mohawk Valley and Adirondacks. Elsewhere, it be dry with some passing clouds. Temps will mainly be in the upper 30s to low 40s, although a few cooler spots are possible and some patchy frost can't be totally ruled out in outlying and high terrain areas once again. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... The long term period opens with a shortwave passing just south of the region as it rotates around the southern extent of broad upper troughing. Modest upper ridging and surface high pressure build in quickly on Tuesday, followed by a period of dry weather and a warming trend through Thursday. A very deep and potent upper trough looks to move into the region Thursday and Friday, bringing much cooler air following the passage of a cold front. Beneath broad upper troughing, Monday will see temperatures slightly below seasonal norms with some lake effect showers and snow flurries possible in the southwestern Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley as the upper shortwave passes just south of the region. Highs will be in the upper 40s to mid 50s in high terrain and upper 50s to mid 60s at lower elevations. Any showers will diminish into the evening as heights aloft begin to rise and surface high pressure moves in from the southwest. Lows Monday night will be on the cool side, with widespread mid to upper 30s while the mid-Hudson Valley south from the Capital District see low 40s. High pressure dominates the midweek period yielding dry weather, largely clear skies, and a warming trend across the region. Highs warm through Thursday when high terrain will see upper 50s to low 60s and lower elevations mid and upper 60s. Tuesday night will be a few degrees warmer than Monday night, but Wednesday night will be significantly warmer with widespread lows in the 40s and low 50s along the Hudson and Mohawk Rivers. The approaching high-amplitude upper trough brings a potent cold front with rain overspreading the region Thursday. Lows Thursday night fall into the upper 30s in the southwestern Adirondacks with 40s elsewhere. Friday looks to bring much cooler temps behind the cold front as showers linger into the afternoon. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Through 12Z Saturday...Conditions are currently VFR at all terminals with sct-bkn cigs at 8-10 kft and unrestricted vsbys. VFR conditions should persist through the morning, until showers arrive after 17Z leading to MVFR vsbys at ALB/GFL. Confidence is lower at PSF of any showers, so have included VCSH instead. POU is likely to remain VFR without any precipitation. Few-sct low clouds at 3-4 kft could develop at all terminals after 17-18Z, and may result in borderline VFR/MVFR cigs if coverage increases. Otherwise, conditions will remain VFR with few-sct low clouds and mid-level clouds increasing after 06Z Saturday. Winds are currently calm to light and variable across the region. Westerly winds will develop after 15-18Z at 6-12 kt with gusts to 20 kt or higher possible. Winds will shift more northwesterly following the frontal passage and remain gusty beyond 00Z Saturday. Wind speeds and gusts will ultimately begin to diminish after 06Z. Outlook... Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Columbus Day: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Frugis NEAR TERM...Frugis SHORT TERM...Frugis LONG TERM...Picard AVIATION...Picard