941 FXUS64 KEPZ 070927 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 327 AM MDT Fri Oct 7 2022 ...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 246 AM MDT Fri Oct 7 2022 An upper-level low will continue to bring us periods of rain and thunderstorms through Monday with below normal temperatures. Rain chances decrease sharply for Tuesday with a dry day expected on Wednesday with seasonal warmth, but chances for rain return again on Thursday. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 246 AM MDT Fri Oct 7 2022 Upper low over the northern Gulf of California will move only slightly NE over the next 24 hours, with the plume of abundant Gulf moisture continuing to flow over the Borderland. Therefore today's weather will remain quite similar to what we experienced yesterday: mostly cloudy with on an off showers across the FA. Above normal moisture continues to flow overhead, with PW values around 0.8" to 0.9" expected across the region by peak heating. As mentioned, the UL low will move slightly NE today, but just enough to increase synoptic lift this afternoon. Despite the cloud cover, the entire area has a chance for isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms, but areas west of the Rio Grande River look to be in the better area for forcing and therefore periods of numerous thunderstorms/showers may be possible. Storm motion will be a little faster today than yesterday (S/SW 5-15kt), however localized flooding will still be possible, especially over areas that have seen abundant moisture the past few days. Weak buoyancy/shear near the international border may help contribute to hail development, but hail should remain subsevere. Strong wind gusts can occur around any storm. As we lose sunlight this evening, storm coverage will decrease but linger through the morning, especially over western zones including the Gila region. Temperatures will continue to be below normal today. With overnight temperatures remaining quite mild. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 246 AM MDT Fri Oct 7 2022 The upper level low described in the short term must really love the Northern Gulf of California/ Sonora area because it will remain quasi-stationary through Sunday. That will keep us basically fixed within the same pattern described above, but with variations in where the axis of heaviest rain will fall. Thus, expect periods of rain and thunderstorms for just about everyone with localized flash flooding remaining the main concern, especially for areas that received repeated rainfall. The threat for hail looks to decrease though as shear will decrease some. By Monday, the low begins to weaken into a trough and begins its shift to the east-northeast. It will not change our weather much for Monday, but rain chances drop sharply for Tuesday, favoring mainly the mountains and eastern areas while drier air arrives from southwest to northeast. Temperatures will rebound closer to normal while southwest flow sets up aloft ahead of our next upper-level trough/ low. Wednesday will also be dry with seasonal temperatures. Rain chances return on Thursday as the GFS and Euro show the second trough/ low dropping along the International Border while a weak side-door or back-door front moves cross the CWA. The moisture tap looks healthy, but there are considerable differences in the placement and timing of these features. The GFS is farther west and slower than the Euro. In fact by Friday evening it looks like the pattern we have now. The Euro with its quicker and weaker solution keeps rain over Chihuahua, just touching the International Border and our Texas counties. Temperatures through the period will remain below normal through Tuesday. By Wednesday we'll be about normal before dropping a couple degrees for Thursday and Friday. The later temperatures will depend on much rain and clouds we get. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1025 PM MDT Thu Oct 6 2022 Generally VFR conditions with SCT100 BKN-OVC250. Mainly west of the Rio Grande Valley...isolated BKN050CB -SHRA/-TSRA til around 10Z. Developing again after 18Z...scattered BKN/OVC050CB 5SM -TSRA Gusty winds to 35KT and moderate size hail possible with these storms. Otherwise surface winds east/southeast 8-12KT. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 246 AM MDT Fri Oct 7 2022 Little to no fire danger through the weekend as wetting rains continue across the Borderland. Upper low over Sonora will maintain a fetch of Gulf moisture moving into NM and W TX from the southeast. RH 40-50% midday, recovering to 90-100% overnight. Generally Poor smoke ventilation through the weekend due to cloud cover and overall light winds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 75 59 74 58 / 60 40 60 70 Sierra Blanca 69 52 69 52 / 40 20 50 60 Las Cruces 72 55 71 53 / 60 50 60 70 Alamogordo 73 53 72 52 / 60 40 50 70 Cloudcroft 49 38 48 37 / 60 40 70 70 Truth or Consequences 69 53 68 51 / 70 60 70 60 Silver City 63 51 63 49 / 60 50 70 60 Deming 71 55 70 53 / 70 60 70 70 Lordsburg 69 55 70 52 / 50 40 60 50 West El Paso Metro 75 59 74 57 / 60 40 60 70 Dell City 74 53 73 54 / 50 20 40 60 Fort Hancock 76 54 75 54 / 40 20 50 60 Loma Linda 68 52 66 51 / 50 20 50 70 Fabens 76 56 74 56 / 50 20 50 70 Santa Teresa 73 56 73 55 / 60 50 60 70 White Sands HQ 73 56 71 55 / 60 40 60 70 Jornada Range 71 56 70 54 / 60 50 60 70 Hatch 72 55 71 53 / 70 60 60 70 Columbus 70 56 70 54 / 70 50 60 70 Orogrande 72 55 71 54 / 50 40 50 70 Mayhill 58 44 57 43 / 60 40 70 70 Mescalero 61 43 59 42 / 70 40 70 70 Timberon 59 41 57 41 / 60 40 60 70 Winston 62 48 60 46 / 70 60 80 60 Hillsboro 69 50 66 49 / 70 70 70 60 Spaceport 71 54 69 52 / 60 60 60 70 Lake Roberts 63 45 62 42 / 70 60 80 60 Hurley 67 51 67 49 / 60 50 70 50 Cliff 72 49 70 46 / 60 50 70 40 Mule Creek 66 49 65 47 / 60 40 70 40 Faywood 66 53 65 51 / 70 60 70 60 Animas 70 52 70 51 / 50 30 50 40 Hachita 69 52 69 51 / 60 40 60 50 Antelope Wells 68 51 69 50 / 60 30 70 40 Cloverdale 65 50 66 49 / 60 30 70 40 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...33-Reynolds LONG TERM....34-Brown AVIATION...17-Hefner