826 FXCA62 TJSJ 070856 AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 456 AM AST Fri Oct 7 2022 .SYNOPSIS...An induced trough will increase moisture content gradually each day. Unstable conditions will persist across the region and favor better convective development across the islands each day. Marine conditions will improve this weekend and seas at 5 feet or less will be observed across most of the local waters. && .SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday... An upper-level low northeast of the Leeward Islands is expected to move over the Anegada Passage and the northeastern Caribbean Sea during the short term period. At the surface, an induced trough by the low will increase moisture content gradually each day. This scenario will promote unstable conditions across the region and favor better convective development across the islands each day. However, due to increasing trades, minor to moderate rainfall accumulations are expected across the USVI and eastern sections of PR, where streamers are expected to develop in the diurnal cycle and trade wind showers will move at times during the overnight/early morning hours. Meanwhile, across the interior and western PR, better organized convection is expected and thunderstorm activity could lead to urban and small stream flooding each afternoon. Seasonal temperatures are expected across the islands through the weekend. && .LONG TERM...Monday through Saturday... A surface high pressure located in the central Atlantic is expected to dominate for the first half of the long-term period. Nonetheless, in our local area, a seasonal weather scenario is forecasted for all the islands. By Monday, a tropical wave located east of the Leeward Islands is expected to bring showers and isolated thunderstorms. Winds are expected to shift from a more southeasterly flow, local afternoon convection is likely to be centered over the northwestern and western portions of Puerto Rico. The US Virgin Islands can expect morning showers across the area and scattered showers during the afternoons. This tropical wave will bring additional moisture content from the Caribbean that is forecasted to persist until Wednesday. From Thursday through Saturday, winds will persist with a east-southeast flow and shower activity will be observed across the northwestern, western and northern portions of Puerto Rico. Although, a slightly drier air mass will filter in to the region limiting the activity to the mentioned portions. A frontal boundary will move out of the eastern coast of the United States and associated moisture could reach the local area by the beginning of the following week. Heat index values will remain above 100 degrees each day, mostly over urban and coastal areas across north-central Puerto Rico. && .AVIATION...Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail across all terminals through the forecast period. However, +SHRA/TSRA is expected to develop over western PR, which may cause tempo MVFR conds at TJPS. VCSH expected across the rest of the area terminals. East winds increasing at 12-16 kt, with higher gusts and sea breeze variations aft 07/14z. && .MARINE...Moderate to locally fresh trades are expected to prevail during the next several days. Tropical Depression Thirteen will continue to move across the Caribbean Sea during the next couple of days. Seas have subside overnight and seas up to 6 feet or less will prevail across the Caribbean waters and the Mona Passage until today. Mariners should exercise caution across the regional waters. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...None. VI...None. && $$ DSR/GRS