951 FXUS65 KBYZ 070844 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 244 AM MDT Fri Oct 7 2022 .DISCUSSION... Today through Saturday... An area of stratus and low clouds has settled over southern parts of south central and southeast Montana. Focus over the western zones was along the river valleys, as evidenced by satellite imagery. Low clouds at around 2500 feet have not broken up over Yellowstone county yet, and therefore, the fog has been slow to develop. Not quite as confident that stratus will break up and allow fog to form quickly in Billings early this morning, but potential is certainly there with temperature/dewpoint depressions at 2 degrees, so will let the areas of fog forecast ride. Would expect the fog and stratus to lift by mid to late morning as the sun works on it, leaving a sunny sky the rest of the day. High temperatures will be in the lower to mid 60s, with some mid to upper 50s over the east, as they will be getting off to a chillier start (it was 27 degrees at Baker as of this writing). Northerly flow will bring a weak shortwave down this afternoon, and will linger low PoPs for the Bighorns for this. Weak northerly flow will persist tonight and Saturday, with gradually building heights. Highs on Saturday will be around 10 degrees warmer with abundant sunshine. TWH Saturday night through Friday... Main forecast concerns are on precipitation chances on Tuesday. Forecast confidence is high through Tuesday then drops off Wednesday and beyond. WPC Clusters have trended more toward a progressive trough scenario for Tuesday into Wednesday which favors a warmer and faster solution. Consulting the NBM, probabilities for measurable snow (>0.1") are now confined to far western areas and north central Wyoming (mainly west of a line from Harlowton to Red Lodge and the Big Horn Mountains). The probabilities for >1" of snow are now mainly over the mountains and are generally around 20 percent. The trough then moves east and deepens over the Great Lakes region with ridging building across the northwest CONUS. This pattern favors the potential for above normal temperatures over the region in addition to dry northwest flow. ECMWF ensemble members are indicating relatively low spread in temperatures through Tuesday then we are seeing a greater spread in the members from Wednesday and beyond with lower forecast confidence. && .AVIATION... Weak upslope surface winds are expected to allow broken stratus, or a combination of fog & stratus, to linger early this morning, especially along the foothills. This risk of fog, that could reduce local flight conditions to IFR or LIFR, extends to KBIL through about 15z. Fog & stratus will lift by late morning, leaving VFR conditions. There is a slight risk of a shower over the Bighorns this afternoon, otherwise it will be a dry day. TWH && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Tdy Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 061 041/070 042/071 043/075 044/063 040/062 038/066 0/B 00/U 00/U 00/U 02/W 21/U 00/U LVM 066 035/071 038/073 039/075 040/063 034/063 034/068 0/B 00/U 00/U 00/U 03/W 20/U 00/U HDN 063 036/070 036/072 038/077 040/065 036/063 034/067 0/B 00/U 00/U 00/U 02/W 20/U 00/U MLS 058 036/067 039/068 039/072 043/064 038/060 035/061 0/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 01/U 10/U 00/U 4BQ 059 036/067 039/068 039/073 044/064 039/060 036/062 0/B 00/U 00/U 00/U 01/U 20/U 00/U BHK 057 033/065 038/067 038/071 043/064 036/058 034/059 0/U 00/U 00/B 00/U 01/U 10/U 00/U SHR 062 036/068 038/071 039/075 042/066 036/063 035/066 0/B 00/U 00/U 00/U 02/W 21/U 00/U && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings