441 FXUS62 KCAE 070701 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 301 AM EDT Fri Oct 7 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Dry and seasonably warm weather will continue today across the Midlands and Central Savannah River Area. Temperatures will climb into the middle 80s ahead of a dry cold front. Cooler weather follows the front for Saturday and Sunday with mostly clear skies and high temps in the 70's with lows in the upper 40s to middle 50s. Near average temperatures and little chance for rain until the middle of next week before a potentially more active pattern develops. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Friday Morning: Clear skies but dew points have climbed into the 50's across the area, so morning low temps will remain in the low-mid 50's for the entire area, even with calm winds. Friday: Broad troughing remains in place across the eastern CONUS with deep westerly flow continuing from 850-250mb over our area. The associated developing surface low over New England will pull a cold front across the Appalachians throughout the day today, but the pace will slow due to lack of real forcing. Thanks to the westerly flow, a weak lee-thermal trough will strengthen today over the Carolinas and help veer winds a bit and therefore enhance downsloping flow. This, combined with mostly clear skies, will help temps quickly rise into the mid 80's for much of the area. Some cirrus will overspread the area later this afternoon as the front approaches, but not enough to mitigate strong warming. Friday night: The front will cross the area sometime between 00z and 06z Saturday, increasing wind speeds out of the northwest and setting up a moderately strong cold advection regime. Due to cloud cover and only a couple hours of cold advection overnight, low temps will only drop into the mid-upper 50's. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... A broad trough will settle in across the region through the period. At the surface, high pressure will dominate the weather and provide mostly sunny days and mostly clear nights. Highs will be in the middle 70s to near 80 degrees across the CSRA on Saturday and then a couple degrees cooler across the region for Sunday. Overnight lows will be upper 40s to middle 50s from north to south. PW values less than 1 inch for much of the period with a slight increase on Sunday into Sunday night with low level winds from the NE to E. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Weak trough across the ern half of the country into early next week. This will be followed by a brief rise in heights and some ridging ahead of the next system that will bring a chance for showers and possibly a thunderstorms associated with a cold front by Thursday. Temperatures will remain near normal through midweek with a gradual warming trend through the period. Both the GFS/ECMWF have a more significant trough across the ern portion of the country by the end of the week. Although toward the end of the forecast period, models indicate some moisture moving north from the Atlantic and Gulf ahead of the approaching cold front by Thursday. For now have carried chance pops for Thursday into Thursday night. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR expected through the TAF, outside typical shallow ground fog at AGS and possibly OGB this morning. Calm winds have allowed the typical morning issues at AGS to develop with sporadic drops to IFR possible through sunrise. OGB may see some drops in vsby as well, but only expected brief dips to MVFR through and around sunrise. Beyond this morning, strengthening west winds are expected, gusting up to 10 knots for all TAF sites. Some mid-upper level cloud deck will overspread the area later this afternoon ahead of a dry cold front that will approach late Friday night into Saturday morning. Winds expected to weaken before the front arrives however, then strengthening early Saturday morning out of the northwest. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant impacts expected through Saturday. Some CIG restrictions possible early Sunday and Monday mornings. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...