916 FXUS62 KRAH 070640 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 240 AM EDT Fri Oct 7 2022 .SYNOPSIS... A lee trough and warm southwesterly flow will prevail ahead of a strong, but moisture-starved cold front that will cross the region Friday night. Canadian high pressure will follow and extend from the mid MS Valley to the mid-Atlantic through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 215 AM Friday... Water vapor satellite showed a positively-tiled trough swinging southeast across the northern Plains and upper Midwest, along with zonal flow across central NC. Surface observations showed a 1020 mb high across the Appalachians, and a cold front moving southeast across the OH Valley. Another Piedmont trough will set up across the region today, continuing warm air advection with west to southwest surface flow. 1000-850 mb thicknesses will increase to near 1395 m, helping highs to climb to the upper 70s to low 80s by this afternoon. The aforementioned upper trough and surface cold front will traverse the region Friday night, but with a lack of available moisture, only mid/high clouds are expected to develop along and ahead of the front. Colder and drier air will filter in behind the front, but won't arrive until late tonight. Winds will shift northerly post-fropa, with some gusts of 15-20 mph possible. Lows tonight will range from the upper 40s NW to mid-50s SE. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 230 AM Friday... Cold air advection will be in full force behind a departing cold front Saturday morning. Dewpoints will drop into the 40s during the day, and continuing to lower into the mid-30s for some areas Saturday night. A strong and cold surface high will build from the Plains Saturday into the TN Valley Saturday night. Cold air advection, light winds and clear skies will all be the right ingredients for optimal radiational cooling for a chilly night. Lows will range from the upper 30s N to mid-40s S. A few of the usual cold spots may observe patchy frost and temps in the mid-30s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 230 AM Friday... Dry seasonable weather is in store for central NC for the Sunday through Wednesday period as high pressure builds and moves across our region during this time. The high center will finally begin to move offshore Tuesday through Wednesday as the next cold front begins to approach from the west. This will increase the return flow which will help push temps up several deg above normal along with increasing pwat values. The front will move across our area late Thursday or Thursday night, with increasing rain chances during that time with pre-frontal showers developing during the day Thursday and lingering until the front finally exits early Friday morning. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 200 AM Friday... 24 hour TAF period: High confidence in VFR conditions continuing through Saturday morning. Very patchy areas of MVFR VIS could develop this morning, however confidence is low in reduced VIS affecting TAF sites. Mid/high clouds will increase later today as a cold front approaches the region. Looking ahead: Northerly wind gusts to 20 kt are possible Saturday behind a cold front. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected through Tuesday. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MWS NEAR TERM...JJT SHORT TERM...JJT LONG TERM...np AVIATION...JJT