784 FXUS61 KBUF 070604 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 204 AM EDT Fri Oct 7 2022 .SYNOPSIS... A sharp cold front will cross the region overnight with a wind shift and trailing showers. Showers wrap up Friday as high pressure begins to influence the area. It will also be much cooler behind the front where high temps will peak well below normal. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... A cold front is on the doorstep of western NY late tonight. Winds have shifted to the northwest across Toronto and Hamilton Ontario and will move into the Niagara Frontier and locations near Lake Erie by 4am this morning. Showers extend across southern Ontario, mainly behind the cold front. While not impressive on radar, these showers will track into the eastern Great Lakes region this morning. The cold front will track from west to east with winds changing to the northwest behind the front. A much cooler air mass will then advect into the Lower Lakes overnight with strong cold air advection continuing through Friday. An upper level trough just north of Upper Michigan will track east into Quebec Friday. Ascent in the mid levels combined with increasing moisture and strong low-level convergence will bring showers across the region. Some enhancement to the showers is likely across the North Country with better placement for ascent with the upper level trough and near the associated surface low. With temperatures quickly cooling aloft (850mb temps near 0C to -2C) the region will see some lake induced showers southeast of the Lakes by Friday afternoon. However...this will be limited due to moisture dropping off behind the trough and cold front today. Any lake effect rain showers will be concentrated southeast of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. Rainfall amounts there will average 0.10-0.25 inches with the higher amounts immediately east of the Lakes. It will also be breezy with northwest winds gusting 25-30 mph near the Lake Ontario southern shoreline on Friday. Highs will be in the upper 40s to low 50s and likely reached during the morning hours to about lunchtime. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Following the cold frontal passage, 850 mb temperatures fall to around -5C creating an unstable over-lake environment, allowing bands of northwest flow lake effect rain showers Friday night. A fairly low subsidence inversion should limit overall coverage of lake effect. High pressure building into the region will bring an end to any lake effect showers early in the day with a general mix of cloud and sunshine through the day. Saturday will be a chilly day with high temperatures only in the 40s to lower 50s and made feel cooler by a brisk westerly winds. A secondary front approaches Saturday night, perhaps redeveloping a lake response east of Lake Ontario. The secondary frontal passage occurs on Sunday. For the most part this front should move through dry with the possible exception for areas east of Lake Ontario where some showers could accompany a frontal passage. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Persistent eastern CONUS trough will finally lift out during this period, however not before one last shortwave pinwheels through the base of the main upper trough as it crosses the lower Great Lakes and Northeast to start the period. Despite limited available moisture, there may be enough forcing provided by this feature combined with subtle low level convergence associated with diffuse surface boundary still hanging near or across the area to produce a few showers to begin the new work week. Beyond this, high pressure will build east over our area later Monday night into Tuesday, before ridge slides to our east Tuesday night into Wednesday. This will provide mainly dry weather with day-to-day warming of our temperatures through mid week. The next storm system will begin to approach the region toward the latter half of next week, bringing some showers back into the forecast toward the tail end of the period. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Changing weather conditions expected overnight as a cold front crosses the terminals. A cold front is across the eastern Great Lakes and will move into western NY by 09z. Southwest winds will become west-northwest at KIAG/KBUF/KJHW/KROC by 12z Friday morning. The front will track east through the morning hours with a wind shift at KART by 15z Friday morning. VFR conditions will become MVFR/IFR across western NY between 09-12z Friday and at KART by 15z Friday. Regional radar shows scattered showers at most across southern Ontario overnight and behind the cold front. These showers will cross western and north central NY through Friday morning however intensity should remain light with only a short period of potential visibility restrictions. MVFR restrictions will continue through Friday as the cold front moves east of the eastern Great Lakes region. Northwest winds will continue through the day with gusts in the 20-25kt range with the higher gusts near the southern Lake Ontario shoreline. A much cooler airmass will move overhead Friday into Friday night and lake effect rain showers will persist into Friday evening. Local MVFR restrictions possible mainly at KJHW and KROC through Friday evening. Outlook... Friday night...MVFR restrictions possible in scattered showers. Saturday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR. && .MARINE... A strong cold front will continue to approach the lakes overnight with winds increasing from the southwest. The cold front will then track across the Lakes late tonight with winds veering to the northwest. As this occurs...Small Craft conditions will quickly develop on area lakes. Have issued Small Craft Advisories for both lakes beginning tonight and lasting into the day Friday. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for LEZ040- 041. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LOZ030-042. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LOZ043-044. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR/HSK NEAR TERM...AR/HSK SHORT TERM...TMA LONG TERM...JM AVIATION...HSK MARINE...AR/EAJ/HSK