854 FXUS63 KJKL 070546 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 146 AM EDT Fri Oct 7 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 1213 AM EDT FRI OCT 7 2022 Beginning to see a bit of valley fog developing on regional satellite. Thus made a quick update to the forecast package to add in a bit of patchy fog into some of the river valleys. Otherwise, forecast continues to run generally on target. Short term trends suggest a bit of drying behind what may be some type of weak boundary passing through the region, with the current scattered mid level clouds that are passing through the area likely associated with this feature. Drying appears to be limited to the thermal belt region, with the river valleys remaining decoupled. No other updated at this time. UPDATE Issued at 945 PM EDT THU OCT 6 2022 Forecast appears on track this evening. Nudged temperatures and dew point grids towards most recent surface conditions. Temperatures were cooling a bit faster than advertised in the forecast package, but generally on track for advertised overnight lows. Freshened up the zone wording. No other changes at this time. UPDATE Issued at 759 PM EDT THU OCT 6 2022 Some mid level AC continues to roll through the region this evening. There has been some virga associated with light radar returns, and even a few reports of some sprinkles reaching the ground. Should see a period of clearing well after midnight as these clouds pass to our northeast and remain clear or several hours through or until about mid-day Friday. A cold front will be pushing through eastern Kentucky,reaching our northwest counties around sunrise and entirely through eastern Kentucky by early to mid afternoon. Winds will veer out of the west-northwest at 5-10 mph behind the front. There will be a band of moisture well behind the surface boundary, similar to an anafront, but not expecting any precipitation, though suspect a few sprinkles would be possible based on time heights and sounding data. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 311 PM EDT THU OCT 6 2022 The afternoon surface analysis shows high pressure remains in control of the weather across the Ohio Valley this afternoon. The main feature of interest is an upper level shortwave that continues to push east. This has kept a few passing mid and high level clouds going this afternoon, but outside this dry air at the surface is keeping anything you see on radar to virga or perhaps a brief sprinkle of rain. Overall this is leading to mostly sunny skies and temperatures in the low to mid 70s, but even some upper 70s have been seen in the central part of the state. The next feature of interest upstream is a cold front that is set to push toward the area late tonight into Friday. In the wake of the upper level feature today we could see a few lower clouds push into the area based on the HREF. Overall mostly clear skies are expected with perhaps some gradient setting up late. The mostly clear skies and calm conditions in the valleys will lead to a a decent split of 10 degrees or so from the ridges. This allow temperatures to drop into the low to mid 40s in the valleys and upper 40s to lower 50s on the ridges. The was handled well by leaning toward the fifth and tenth percentiles of the NBM for the sheltered valleys. This cold front will help to usher in a Canadian airmass Friday, as a Canadian high pressure located north of the border this afternoon sinks toward the Middle Mississippi River Valley by Friday afternoon and evening. The remains strong agreement among the various ensemble systems on the high placement and therefore leaned toward the NBM Friday. This will likely lead to a mix of sun and clouds on depending on the speed of the strong cold front. Also, as stated this will bring in a cooler and dry airmass, as winds go from westerly to northwesterly through the day on Friday. Most will top out in the mid to upper 60s with perhaps a few 70s depending on cloud cover and the frontal boundary speed. There is good agreement among the various ensemble and deterministic modeling systems to continue to lean toward the NBM for Friday night. It does look like some moisture becomes trapped in the far east and southeastern parts of Kentucky leading to some relatively lower stratus potential. Overall the surface high will not crest and therefore expect some mixing will remain across parts of the area due to the pressure gradient. This leads to some concern on how much frost we see but will keep it to patchy to areas toward dawn Saturday. Also, leaned a little cooler in the valleys mainly in the southwest and Bluegrass. Did hold back in the far east and southeast given those linger cloud cover potential. This will bring lows into the low to mid 30s in the Bluegrass and Lake Cumberland area and outside this likely more like mid to upper 30s. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 310 PM EDT THU OCT 6 2022 The focus in the extended will continue to be the potential for very cold temperatures and widespread frost across eastern Kentucky over the upcoming weekend. The coldest nights will be Saturday night and Sunday, as a much cooler Canadian air mass spreads into the region behind a departed cold front. Our deeper, most sheltered, and typically coldest valley locations could see lows fall into the upper 20s to lower 30s Saturday night into Sunday morning. Widespread frost will be possible that night in those colder locations. Areas of frost will be possible Sunday night into early Monday morning as well. With winds being light to calm and mostly clear skies expected, the potential for frost seems high at this time, especially Saturday night. High pressure will keep the weather dry, albeit quite cool at times, through at least Tuesday. We may see a long overdue shot of rain Wednesday through Thursday, as an area of low pressure is forecast to move through the region. Temperatures should be generally below normal through Monday, as Canadian high pressure dominates our weather. A warming trend is expected from Tuesday onward, as low pressure approaches and winds shift to a more southerly flow. Above normal temperatures would not be out of the question at this point next Wednesday and Thursday. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) ISSUED AT 146 AM EDT FRI OCT 7 2022 Mostly VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Some patchy IFR fog will dot the deeper river valleys in southeastern Kentucky through the rest of the night, but this should not impact any of the TAF sites. Scattered higher-based cumulus and altocumulus will continue to be seen through the next few hours, before generally dissipating through dawn. A passing cold front will then bring scattered to broken lower end VFR/MVFR clouds to the area from northwest to southeast during the day. Have included a small window of MVFR at KSYM late this morning through early this afternoon. Clouds will then diminish from northwest to southeast late today into this evening, lingering longest across KSJS. South to southwest winds of around 5 kts or less will veer to the northwest and increase to 5 to 10 kts behind the frontal passage today. Winds will continue to veer to the north northwest by this evening, generally lessening to around 5 kts. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...RAY SHORT TERM...DJ LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...GEOGERIAN