276 FXUS62 KCHS 070522 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 122 AM EDT Fri Oct 7 2022 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will prevail until a cold front moves through the area early Saturday. High pressure will then return for the weekend and early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Early this morning: Quiet conditions continue across the forecast area with the main forecast challenge through sunrise being the potential for fog. Dewpoints are certainly elevated and most forms of model guidance are hinting that at least patchy fog will develop. We have maintained patchy fog in the forecast, but still don't anticipate any significant visibility reductions. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... Broad mid-level troughing will prevail to our north, with mainly zonal flow over our area through Sunday. At the surface, Atlantic High pressure will prevail through most of Friday. Thickness values support high temperatures a few degrees above normal, especially across our GA counties. A dry cold front is forecasted to move through the area early Saturday, bringing some clouds, but no rain. Cool air advection doesn't appear to be too strong behind the front, even when factoring in the northwest surface winds and building High pressure. In fact, High temperatures may only be a few degrees cooler on Saturday, which is still close to normal. Though, mostly clear skies and light winds Saturday night will lead to decent radiational cooling. Lows Saturday night will be a few degrees below normal, and they may still need to be dropped more with future forecasts. High pressure continues to build in from the northwest on Sunday. Though, the temperature gradient will be more pronounced with highs in the low to mid 70s across our northernmost tier and the mid 80s across our far southern/inland GA counties. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... High pressure will dominate our forecast as it slowly passes to our north through Thursday. The High will bring dry conditions through Wednesday night, with signs of increasing moisture later Thursday. Temperatures will be within a few degrees of normal. && .AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... The main forecast challenge through sunrise will be the potential for fog at the terminals. Model guidance supports at least some shallow fog, with the potential for MVFR visibilities. The KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV TAF's have been adjusted to feature a TEMPO group for MVFR conditions roughly from 10-12z. Any fog that develops will dissipate quickly after sunrise and then VFR conditions will prevail through 06z Saturday. Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR. && .MARINE... Tonight: No marine concerns tonight. Weak pressure pattern will keep south/southwest winds around 10 knots or less. Seas will average 1-2 feet. High pressure will prevail on Friday, yielding sustained winds generally 10 kt or less. A cold front is forecasted to move through the area early Saturday, causing winds to veer to the northwest by late in the day. The surface pressure gradient will become somewhat enhanced Saturday night through the first part of next week, as High pressure builds in from the northwest, then passes to our north. Conditions are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria through Monday. Seas could build to 6 ft across the GA waters beyond 20 nm on Tuesday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Astronomical influences from the upcoming full moon will lead to elevated tide cycles this week. Moderate coastal flooding will be possible with the evening high tides through late week, mainly along the Charleston and Colleton County coasts. Over the weekend, both morning and evening high tides could have moderate to major coastal flooding along the Charleston and Colleton County coasts, then with the morning high tides through mid-week. From Beaufort County to McIntosh County, minor to moderate coastal flooding will be possible with the morning and evening high tides this weekend, then with the morning high tides through mid-week. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...BSH SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...BSH MARINE... TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...