460 FXUS64 KLUB 070505 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1205 AM CDT Fri Oct 7 2022 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday) Issued at 221 PM CDT Thu Oct 6 2022 Expanding upper low to our west continues its retrograde back toward Arizona and NW Old Mexico with assistance from a broadening trough across the northern Plains states and Great Lakes. Two smaller transient circulations aloft can currently be seen drifting north across eastern New Mexico on satellite, providing just enough lift over a saturated boundary layer across the South Plains and southwest Texas Panhandle to drive periods of light rainfall on the Caprock. The occasional precipitation and cloud cover is expected to persist for the remainder of today and tomorrow, especially in proximity to the NM/TX state line. No deep convection is expected, but approximately 500J/kg may be realized tomorrow afternoon, gradually decreasing the further east you get from the state line. Periods of moderate rain will be possible in those locations that see the best instability, otherwise amounts will be light, under a quarter of an inch. Temperatures today have been adjusted lower on the Caprock from primary NBM output, with similar values tomorrow. Likewise, east of the escarpment will be similar today, where less clouds will allow highs to climb into the mid 80s. Overnight lows will be in the 50s area wide. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 221 PM CDT Thu Oct 6 2022 The unsettled pattern we have moved into recently will continue through much of the extended forecast. This will occur as West Texas remains positioned between an upper trough/low over the Desert Southwest and broad troughing across the eastern half or so of the continent. This pattern will keep a feed of monsoon moisture streaming over the region, meaning plenty of clouds, along with occasional rain chances. The northern stream trough will provide a backdoor cold front, with the cooler and somewhat drier low-level air building in on breezy easterly/northeasterly winds Friday evening/night. Although drier air will be advected in near the surface, the mid-level moisture drawn northward over the frontal zone will keep rain chances going through much of the weekend and into early next week, despite the surface front tending to wash out late weekend. Specific details remain sketchy in this weakly forced environment, but current NWP suggest the most widespread precipitation will be on Saturday and concentrated from northeast New Mexico through the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles and into western Oklahoma. This makes sense since it is also where the best combination of deep moisture and modest lift will be. Even so, much of the CWA will have a chance of seeing rain (highest northwest and lowest southeast) on Saturday. Plus, given the expected cloud cover, we have elected to favor the lower end of guidance (25th percentile NBM) for high temperatures Saturday. Rain chances may be reinvigorated later Sunday into Monday when a portion of the southwestern trough lifts this way, but it will quickly reload, in some form or fashion (probably further west near California), by the middle of next week. In the wake of the ejecting disturbance, the atmosphere will tend to dry, leading to diminishing PoPs and moderating temperatures Tuesday into Wednesday. Eventually, another cold front may push through the South Plains late Wednesday or Thursday as a northern stream trough deepens over the Great Lakes region. At this point, it looks like we will only see a glancing shot of cooler air with next week's front as the thrust of the surface ridging will be directed to our east. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1203 AM CDT Fri Oct 7 2022 VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all terminals. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible at all terminals during this TAF cycle, expecially by the afternoon. While no significant issues are expected, CIGs and VIS could drop to MVFR in heavier showers and thunderstorms. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...55 LONG TERM....23 AVIATION...51