637 FXUS66 KMFR 070355 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 855 PM PDT Thu Oct 6 2022 .DISCUSSION...The stubborn October summer like pattern continues with a more fall like marine layer once again pushing inland from the coast again tonight. This stratus later is expected to push inland to a similar area as last night into this morning, and is expected to push inland into the Umpqua basin into the Roseburg area. && .AVIATION...07/00Z TAFs...IFR/LIFR marine stratus will continue to impact the coastal waters and most of the coast, including North Bend, through the next 24 hours. We expect low ceilings and fog to also develop in the Umpqua Basin, including Roseburg tonight (around 10z), and then last through late Friday morning/early afternoon (around 21z). Elsewhere inland, expect VFR to prevail through the next 24 hours. -Spilde && .MARINE...Updated 830 PM Thursday, 6 October 2022...Mostly light north winds and low seas are expected tonight. A thermal trough will redevelop Friday into Saturday and north winds will increase again. An area of 20-25kt winds is expected to develop just a couple of nautical miles off the coast south of Cape Blanco to around Pistol River and then outward to 60NM across the south outer zone (PZZ376). This will result in steep short period seas of 6-8 feet in those areas. We have adjusted the forecast to add a small craft advisory. A background WNW swell of 4 to 5 feet at 12-14 seconds can be expected as well. The thermal trough is expected to weaken again on Sunday, but north winds are expected to increase by the start of next week with small craft conditions possible by Monday afternoon south of Cape Blanco. -Spilde && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 539 PM PDT Thu Oct 6 2022/ DISCUSSION...With upper level ridging in place over southern Oregon and far northern California, there will be little day -to- day changes in the forecast, with no significant changes likely to occur until early next week. For inland areas, expect dry, mostly clear weather with daytime temperatures of 10 to 15 degrees above normal for early October, along with more seasonable overnight lows. Areas along the coast will see near to slightly above normal temperatures, with marine layer pushes producing overnight into morning clouds and fog. There have been several changes during the extended period over the lats several forecast cycles, as models have had some difficulty finding consensus regarding the behavior of an upper level trough that may arrive in the area early next week. Most ensemble members show the trough riding over the West Coast ridge and digging south into California as a cut-off low by Tuesday. This scenario is one that is likely to produce dry east winds Monday night into Wednesday or Thursday morning. A few members do produce some shower activity within the area as the low passes, or takes up station just to our south, but the bulk of solutions, along with historical trends, suggest that the low will take up position too far south, and that moisture from the source regions will be too scarce, to produce any significant rainfall chances. Depending on the specific track of the low, temperatures may cool slightly for a day or so, but overall, no major cooling or warming trend away from current conditions is expected through the end of the forecast term. -BPN AVIATION...07/00Z TAFs...IFR/LIFR marine stratus will continue to impact the coastal waters and most of the coast, including North Bend, through the next 24 hours. We expect low ceilings and fog to also develop in the Umpqua Basin, including Roseburg tonight (around 10z), and then last through late Friday morning/early afternoon (around 21z). Elsewhere inland, expect VFR to prevail through the next 24 hours. -Spilde MARINE...Updated 200 PM Thursday, 5 October 2022...North winds will diminish this evening. A thermal trough will re develop Friday into Saturday and with north winds increasing. However, the models consensus shows winds should remain below small craft during this time. There could be brief periods during this time where wind gusts could exceed small craft, especially south of Cape Blanco and beyond 10 nm from shore, except north of Gold Beach where it will be closer to shore. Given that were only expecting brief periods where wind gusts could reach small craft, we'll hold off on any headline for now. The thermal trough is expected to weaken again on Sunday, then north winds are expected to increase by the start of next week with small craft conditions possible by Monday afternoon south of Cape Blanco. -Petrucelli && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. CA...None. Pacific Coastal Waters...None. && $$ SBN/SBN/SBN