024 
FXUS63 KARX 070347
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1047 PM CDT Thu Oct 6 2022

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 216 PM CDT Thu Oct 6 2022

Key Messages:

 - Colder end to the week with frost/freeze potential the next
   couple nights

 - Warming early next week with rain chances returning Tue/Wed along 
   another cold front passage.

Tonight: Colder, frost potential tonight

Behind the cold front and a few showers this morning, gusty winds 
have prevailed from the north to northwest. Drier air along with 
these gusty winds have allowed skies to become more scattered 
than overcast, leading to a nice mix of clouds and sun. Winds are 
expected to diminish heading into tonight, but cooler air moving 
into the area may keep the boundary layer mixed enough to allow 
some intermittent gusts through the overnight hours.

Temperatures tonight will be colder, but there is uncertainty on 
how cold with lingering clouds and weak cold air advection which 
will keep winds through the overnight hours. Across our forecast 
area, the frost/freeze program remains active generally along and 
south of I-90, with low temperatures there expected to fall into 
the low to mid-30s. Opted to not issue a frost advisory tonight 
due to the lower confidence with clouds and winds remaining.

Friday - Saturday: Cold with widespread freeze likely Friday night

Cold air remains over the area Friday into Saturday with 850mb temps 
remaining near -3 to -5C, slowing increasing Friday night as weak 
WAA takes over from the west. Despite a wave dropping across the 
area on Friday morning, there is too much dry air in place to 
bring any precipitation with it. Surface high pressure drops south
from Canada with this wave, which will bring the clearing and 
calming trend into Friday night - this will bring a high 
probability of widespread freezing temperatures across our 
forecast area. Forecast temperatures range from the upper 20s away
from the river valleys with low to mid 30s within the valley.

Next week: Warming with small rain chances mid-week, then another
cool down

Warming takes place early in the week with weak ridging and warm 
air advection across the area despite NW flow. 850mb temps climb 
into the low to mid teens by Tuesday ahead of an approaching cold 
front that will bring our next chance for more widespread 
precipitation, albeit brief and on the lighter side. The cold 
front Wednesday into Thursday will then bring another cool down to
end the week across the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1045 PM CDT Thu Oct 6 2022

Sct-bkn conditions are expected to continue through the TAF period. 
VFR conditions should prevail with cloud heights mostly above fl030, 
however there are periods of patchy MVFR ceilings fl015-030. This
first area of patchy MVFR ceilings could hold to the north of 
KRST, but another patchy could them 14-18Z and at KLSE at 11-13Z. 
In addition, with an upper level trough swinging through, may see 
a few instability showers develop during this time as well. North 
winds continue 5 to 14kts, becoming southwest Friday evening.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JAW
AVIATION...Zapotocny