762 FXUS61 KBUF 070229 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1029 PM EDT Thu Oct 6 2022 .SYNOPSIS... A sharp cold front will cross the region tonight with showers or even an isolated rumble of thunder. Showers wrap up Friday as high pressure begins to influence the area. It will also be much cooler behind the front where high temps will peak well below normal. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... A strong mid-level trough will swing through the upper Great Lake with its cold front approaching the area (western New York) around midnight. The cold front will then track from west to east with winds abruptly changing to the northwest behind the front. A much cooler air mass will then advect into the Lower Lakes overnight and will 'likely' continue into the day Friday. That said...with the arrival of the front look for chances for showers. With the frontal passage...moisture will then begin to deplete from west to east Friday afternoon. With temperatures quickly cooling aloft (850mb temps near 0C to -2C) we may see some lake induced showers. However...this will 'likely' be limited due to the above mentioned depleting moisture. Any lake effect rain showers will be concentrated southeast of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. Rainfall amounts there will average 0.10-0.25 inches with the higher amounts immediately east of the Lakes. It will also be breezy with northwest winds gusting 25-30 mph near the Lake Ontario southern shoreline on Friday. Highs will be in the upper 40s to low 50s and likely reached during the morning hours to about lunchtime. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Following the cold frontal passage, 850 mb temperatures fall to around -5C creating an unstable over-lake environment, allowing bands of northwest flow lake effect rain showers Friday night. A fairly low subsidence inversion should limit overall coverage of lake effect. High pressure building into the region will bring an end to any lake effect showers early in the day with a general mix of cloud and sunshine through the day. Saturday will be a chilly day with high temperatures only in the 40s to lower 50s and made feel cooler by a brisk westerly winds. A secondary front approaches Saturday night, perhaps redeveloping a lake response east of Lake Ontario. The secondary frontal passage occurs on Sunday. For the most part this front should move through dry with the possible exception for areas east of Lake Ontario where some showers could accompany a frontal passage. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Persistent eastern CONUS trough will finally lift out during this period, however not before one last shortwave pinwheels through the base of the main upper trough as it crosses the lower Great Lakes and Northeast to start the period. Despite limited available moisture, there may be enough forcing provided by this feature combined with subtle low level convergence associated with diffuse surface boundary still hanging near or across the area to produce a few showers to begin the new work week. Beyond this, high pressure will build east over our area later Monday night into Tuesday, before ridge slides to our east Tuesday night into Wednesday. This will provide mainly dry weather with day-to-day warming of our temperatures through mid week. The next storm system will begin to approach the region toward the latter half of next week, bringing some showers back into the forecast toward the tail end of the period. && .AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Tonight...southwest wind will increase across western NY ahead of an approaching cold front. The front will likely reach KIAG/KBUF around midnight and then track east overnight. Ceilings will lower late tonight with MVFR/IFR conditions by Friday morning. Outlook... Friday through Friday night...Some restrictions possible in scattered showers. Saturday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR. && .MARINE... A strong cold front will continue to approach the lakes tonight with winds increasing from the southwest. The cold front will then track across the Lakes late tonight with winds veering to the northwest. As this occurs...Small Craft conditions will quickly develop on area lakes. Have issued Small Craft Advisories for both lakes beginning tonight and lasting into the day Friday. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Friday for LEZ040-041. Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday for LOZ030-042. Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 11 PM EDT Friday for LOZ043-044. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM...TMA LONG TERM...JM AVIATION...AR MARINE...AR